[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A 1010 mb low pressure is
located near 10.9N42.3W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident from 05N to 15N and between 39.5W and 49W.
Strong to near gale easterly winds are found northeast of the
system, especially from 11.5N and 15N and between 37W and 45W.
While, fresh to strong easterly winds are found north of the
system, especially from 9.5N and 20N and between 39W and 43W.
Furthermore, a Gale Warning will be in effect starting at 18/12Z.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west- northwestward across the central and western tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. This disturbance has a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details. Additional information, regarding the Gale
Warning, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17.5N16W and continues southwestward to 06N27W to
AL94 near 10.9N42.3W to 08N52W. Other than the convection
associated with AL94 described in the Special Features section
above, scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 07N
and between 12W and 31.5W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of a 1022 mb high
pressure system extending from the U.S. Great Plains southward to
Heroica Veracruz, Mexico, allowing for a dry continental airmass
to dominate the basin. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
still occurring over most of the basin, except gentle to moderate
winds over the NW Gulf. Additionally, locally strong NW winds are
likely still occurring near Veracruz, with seas around 8 ft
offshore Veracruz. Elsewhere south of 26N, seas are 5 to 9 ft.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf and 2 to 5 ft in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Fresh
N winds across the Gulf will gradually diminish today from north
to south. Seas will gradually subside tonight into Wed as high
pressure continues to build over the region. A frontal system will
bring moderate to fresh winds for the NE Gulf on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Satellite imagery continues to depicts scattered
showers and thunderstorms near the frontal boundary in the
southern Gulf of Honduras, off the coast of Nicaragua, and
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also seen from 12N to 15.5N between 73W and
76W in association to deep layer trough.

To the northwest of the stationary front, moderate to fresh north
winds are occurring, along with seas 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the south-
central and southeast Caribbean, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front should
remain in place through Wed before dissipating Wed night. Fresh NE
winds and moderate seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean
through Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead,
a broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands has a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation trough 48 hours with a
high chance of formation beyond 48 hours. This system is forecast
to approach the waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri into Sat
bringing increasing winds and seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on
Invest 94L.

A stationary front extends from 31N64W to eastern Cuba. A
clusters of scattered thunderstorms are noted along and within 120
nm SE of the front over the SE Bahamas. Elsewhere, along the
front isolated to scattered thunderstorms are depicted. Moderate
to fresh winds and seas 6 to 9 ft are occurring from 25N to 31N
between 55W and 81W. Winds are mainly gentle farther south, to the
north of eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Farther east, a surface trough is associated with the remnants of
Sean and are producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 16N to 23N between 53W and 60W. A surface
ridge extends from 30N31W to 1021 mb high pressure near 27N42.5W
to 26N47W to 23N61W. Light to gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
near the ridge axis. In the far NE part of the area, north of 29N
and east of 29W, large swell of 7 to 9 ft is subsiding, due to a
departing storm system far to the north.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will remain in place before dissipating Wed night or Thu. Expect
fresh winds over waters north of 25N through this morning, on both
sides of the front. Winds and seas will diminish tonight as high
pressure builds over the area in the wake of the front. Looking
ahead, the next frontal system will move offshore the southeastern
United States Fri night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are
forecast north of 27N Fri night through Sat night with this
system. A broad area of low pressure located over the central
tropical Atlantic about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation trough 48 hours
and a high chance of formation beyond 48 hours. This system is
likely to be near the northern Leeward Islands by Sat, bringing
increasing winds and seas.

$$
KRV
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