[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A broad area of 1012 mb low
pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic near 10N39W,
about midway between the Windward Islands and western Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 05N
to 12N between 34W and 44W. Winds are currently 20-25 kt with seas
of 8 ft at most. Satellite data indicate that the low-level
circulation continues to become better defined and, since
environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
further development, a tropical depression is likely to form
within a few days. This system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward across the central and western tropical
Atlantic during the next several days. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours,
and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 32W, from 18N
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant deep
convection is present with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and
Guinea near 11N15W to 08N30W to low pressure (AL94) near 10N39W to
08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 08N58W. Other than the
convection associated with AL94 described in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
evident from 02N to 08N between 18W and 26W, and from 08N to 12.5N
between 44W and 59W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure located over the central United States dominates the
basin in the wake of the first strong cold front of the season.
Fresh to strong NW-N winds prevail across the entire Gulf as
sampled by an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass. Seas are 7-10 ft,
except 3-6 ft in the northern Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Fresh
to strong N winds will continue across most of the Gulf of Mexico
through tonight before gradually diminishing Tue. Seas will
gradually subside into mid week as high pressure continues to
build over the region in the wake of a cold front now located SE
of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The first strong cold front of the season is in the NW Caribbean,
extending from central Cuba to near the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to
locally strong NW-N winds are filtering in behind the front
including through the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 4-7 ft are also
building behind the front, highest near the Yucatan Channel.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present within 75
nm along and ahead of the front, with similar activity in the
Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
found in the SW and S-central Caribbean due to the proximity of
the eastern Pacific monsoon trough which extends along 11N/12N.
Otherwise, fair weather is found in the Caribbean. Winds are
mainly light to gentle SE of the cold front, locally moderate
offshore Venezuela including across the A-B-C Islands. Seas are
mainly 3 ft or less SE of the cold front.

For the forecast, the front will reach from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by Tue morning before stalling, and then
gradually dissipating into mid-week. Fresh NE winds and moderate
seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean through Wed as high
pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low
pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about midway
between the Windward Islands and western Africa has now a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation trough 48 hours. This system
is forecast to approach the waters E of the Leeward Islands late
Fri into Sat bringing increasing winds and seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on
a broad area of 1012 mb low pressure (AL94) located over the
central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Windward
Islands and western Africa near 10N39W.

A strong cold front extends from SE of Bermuda through 31N65W to
the SE Bahamas, with another front and frontal trough 120-300 nm
ahead of it N of 22N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are N of
24N between the two boundaries. Fresh to locally strong winds
follow the parent front, with fresh SW winds ahead of it. Seas are
mainly 5-8 ft W of the leading front/frontal trough.

Low pressure, the remnants of Sean, is near 18N52W with associated
winds of moderate to fresh and seas of 6-7 ft. A ridge of high
pressure extending from near the Canary Islands through 27N38W to
along 22N dominates the remainder of the waters. Gentle to
moderate winds are found under the ridge. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft
across the open waters, except 7-10 ft N of 29N between the Canary
Islands and 35W associated with a low pressure system well N of
the area.

For the forecast W of 55W, the strong cold front will reach from
31N63W to eastern Cuba by Tue morning, then stall on Wed before
dissipating on Thu. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over
waters north of 25N through tonight, on both sides of the front.
Winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds
over the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, a broad
area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
about midway between the Windward Islands and western Africa has
now a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation trough 48 hours.
This system is forecast to approach the waters E of the Leeward
Islands late Fri into Sat bringing increasing winds and seas.

$$
Lewitsky
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