[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south
of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed along and within 180 nm W of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to a 1012 mb low
pres (AL94) near 09N37W and to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from
09N46W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen on satellite imagery from 06N to 15N and
between 37W and 45W, mainly associated with Invest 94L. Similar
convection is noted from 01N to 08N east of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N winds and 7 to 10 ft seas cover the Gulf of
Mexico, in the wake of a cold front, which has now exited the
basin to the southeast.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue across
most of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight before gradually
diminishing Tue. Seas will gradually subside into mid week as high
pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba to near Tulum,
Mexico. Fresh N winds are occurring to the NW of the front. Seas
have built to 6 ft in the Yucatan Channel, behind the front.
Elsewhere, gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail across the basin,
except for the SE Caribbean, northward from the coast of Venezuela
to 15N, where moderate trades and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail.

Isolated showers and tstorms are occurring within 150 nm in
advance of the cold front. Similar activity is also seen from
north of Jamaica eastward to near Hispaniola. Scattered strong
convection is occurring near the Colombia low south of 13N between
71W and 77.5W.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from central Cuba to
the coast of Guatemala near 16N88.5W by early Tue morning before
stalling, and then gradually dissipating into mid-week. Fresh NE
winds and moderate wave heights will persist over the northwest
Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area.
Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression
or storm will develop over the Atlantic by late this week,
possibly bringing winds to gale force to the waters east of the
Leeward Islands by late week, along with rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas to just west of
Havana, Cuba. Another cold front extends from 31N59W to 28N66W. A
surface trough continues from 28N66W to the Bahamas near 24N77W.
Scattered thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm either side of the
surface trough. Similar activity is noted along and within 120 nm
nm east of the eastern cold front. Fresh westerly winds and 6 to 9
ft seas cover the western Atlantic, north of 24N and west of 55W.
Fresh NW winds and 3-6 ft seas are in the Straits of Florida. High
pressure ridging extends from 23N55W to Hispaniola.

Farther east, a 1011 mb low pressure (Invest 94) is centered near
09N37W. Convection is described above in the monsoon trough
section. Fresh easterly winds and seas to 6 ft are occurring
north of the center. Although the environment may not support much
development during the next couple of days, conditions are
expected to become more conducive thereafter, and a tropical
depression is still likely to form by late this week. This system
is expected to move westward or west-northwestward across the
central and western tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The remnant low of Sean is near 18.5N50W with max winds of 25 kt
and peak seas of 9 ft over a relatively small area. Scattered
moderate convection is from 16N to 22N between 49W and 52W. The
remnant low is expected to dissipate early Tue.

A surface trough extends from 30N29W to 29N42W to 27N51W. Isolated
showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the axis. A 1020 mb
high pressure is near 26N38W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft north of 28N
between 26W and 42W in westerly swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front reaching from 31N67W to
the NW Bahamas to just west of Havana, Cuba will push eastward
until it stalls Tue from Bermuda to central Cuba, then dissipates
through mid week. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over waters
north of 25N through tonight, on both sides of the front. Winds
and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over
the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, there is a high
chance that a tropical depression will develop over the Atlantic
by the end of the week, possibly bringing fresh to strong winds
and rough seas to the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by
late week.

$$
Hagen
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