[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the Gulf
of Mexico from SW Florida near 26N82W to 23N89W to southern Mexico
near 19N86W. N to NW Winds are reaching gale-force behind the
front near Veracruz, Mexico with seas ranging 8 to 10 ft. Winds
will drop below gale-force in the next few hours but still be
fresh to strong through Mon night. Seas will drop below 8 ft by
Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
this warning.

Tropical Depression Sean is centered near 18.0N 48.2W at 15/2100
UTC or 850 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 16N to 19N between 47W and 50W.
Peak seas are around 7 ft. The depression will continue moving WNW
through tonight. A turn toward the west is expected on Monday.
Weakening is forecast, and Sean is forecast to become a remnant
low later tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A 1011 mb low pressure is
centered near 9.5N34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 10N between 34W and 36W. Seas are around 7 ft in this
area. While this system is less organized since yesterday, the
overall environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is still
likely to form around midweek while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward across the central and western tropical
Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of development in 48
hours and high chance in 7 days. Winds will become near- gale
force near this low pressure system over the next few days. Rough
seas are forecast around this system through Tue.
Please refer to the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Ocean Large Swell Event: A dying cold front
extends from 31N37W to 25N48W. A surface trough continues from
25N48W to 22N59W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are to the
north of the front and trough E of 40W. Isolated showers are noted
within 50 nm of the boundary. Rough seas are noted N of 27N
between 31W and 48W. As the dying front moves eastward, winds will
shift eastward with it, and moderate winds will dissipate over the
high seas area by tonight. The swell is expected to subside by
Monday morning over the area. For more information, read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 16N between 27W and 32W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 10N24W to 10N38W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted around this area from 02N to 17N between 13W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the Gale Warning near Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from SW Florida
near 26N82W to 23N89W to southern Mexico near 19N86W. A trough is
noted behind the front along the Mexico coast from 22N98W to
19N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Bay of
Campeche around the front S of 24N. A trough extends ahead of the
front from the Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan from
24N81W to 22N88W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the extreme
SE Gulf just north of Cuba around the trough.

Outside of the gale-force winds near Veracruz, fresh to strong N
winds are noted across the western Gulf and along the central Gulf
Coast. Seas range 8 to 10 ft in the western Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted in central and eastern Gulf. Seas range 4 to
6 ft across the rest of the Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas ahead of the cold front in the extreme SE Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will move southeast of the Gulf
tonight followed by fresh winds and rough seas into Mon. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish through mid week as high
pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure continues to influence the Caribbean, giving way to
fairly benign conditions. Scattered thunderstorms are noted around
Jamaica and Hispaniola. Scattered thunderstorms are also observed
in the SW Caribbean along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of
13N. Moderate trade winds are noted off the Venezuela coast.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the
basin. Slight seas are also noted across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds and seas will increase over the far
northwest Caribbean starting tonight following a cold front moving
through the Yucatan Channel. The front will stall from central
Cuba to Belize Mon, and dissipate into mid week. Fresh NE winds
and moderate wave heights will persist over the northwest
Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area.
Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression
or storm will develop over the Atlantic during the next several
days, possibly bringing winds to at least near-gale force to the
waters east of the Leeward Islands by mid week, along with rough
seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
TD Sean, AL94 and the large swell event in the NE waters of the
High Seas Forecast area.

In the western Atlantic, the first cold front extends from 31N73W
to the South Florida coast near 27N80W. A second front is farther
east, extending from 31N64W to 27N71W with a trough extending
from that point to the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along this front and trough from 23N to 29N
between 58W and 76W. Moderate to fresh W winds are noted across
the western Atlantic due to both of these systems. Seas are 8 to
10 ft behind the first cold front N of 29N between 67W and 76W.
Otherwise, seas are 4 to 7 ft across the rest of the region.

Aside from the large swell in the central Atlantic, winds are
light to gentle under the influence of high pressure in the area.
Seas are slight to moderate in this area. The eastern Atlantic
also has surface ridging across the area. Gentle to locally
moderate winds and slight seas are noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will move to
31N70W to western Cuba Mon, stall from near Bermuda to central
Cuba Tue, then dissipate through mid week. Expect fresh winds over
waters north of 30N and west of 70W into Mon behind the front.
Winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds
over the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, there is a
high chance that a tropical depression or storm will develop over
the Atlantic during the next several days, possibly bringing
fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the waters northeast of
the Leeward Islands by mid week.

$$
AReinhart
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