[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140441
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Sean is centered near 15.1N 42.9W at 14/0300 UTC
or 1095 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 14 ft. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60
nm from the center. Sean is a sheared tropical storm and
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident within
180 nm in the NE semicircle and 75 nm SW semicircle. Similar
convection is occurring from 09.5N to 12N between 40W and 43.5W. A
turn toward the northwest is expected soon, and this motion should
continue for the next day or so. Sean is then expected to turn
back toward the west-northwest by Sunday. Weakening is
anticipated, and Sean will likely become a post-tropical remnant
low over the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 992 mb low pressure
is centered just N of the area near 32N57W, moving eastward. A
cold front extends SW from the low to 28N60W to 26N67W to 27N73W.
A warm front extends SE from the low to 28N47W. Gale force SW to W
winds are currently occurring north of 28N between 54W and 60W,
confirmed by recent ASCAT satellite data. The data shows strong to
near-gale force winds elsewhere north of 24.5N between 50W and
62W. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are likely occurring within the gale
area. Seas of 7 to 16 ft are occurring in the strong to near-gale
area. The gale force winds and rough seas will continue through
today along with and ahead of the cold front as it moves eastward.
Today, expect seas 12 ft or greater to cover the area north of
26N between 40W and 60W. After the gales end this evening, expect
strong to near gale force winds and seas over 12 ft to affect
waters north of 26.5N between 35W and 50W tonight through Sun
morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

AL94: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 29W
from 03N to 15N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure
area (AL94) is along the wave near 09N29W. Numerous strong
convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 26W and 32W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 13.5N between 24W
and 32.5W. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early to middle portion
of next week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward
across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This system has
a medium chance of development within the next 48 hours and a high
chance within the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 20N
southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 13W and 23W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 1009 mb
low pressure (AL94) near 09N29W to 07N35W. For convection, see the
Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from Ft. Myers, FL west-southwestward to
25N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N to 26N
between 83W and 86W, and from 25N to 27.5N between 87W and 89.5W.
Another surface trough extends from 24N89W southward to the
Yucatan Peninsula and to northern Guatemala near 17N90W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring south of 23N
between 88.5W and 96W, mainly W of the surface trough over
portions of southeastern Mexico. Winds in the basin are gentle to
moderate with 2 to 3 ft seas, except up to 4 ft in the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, gentle breezes and slight seas will persist
through the pre-dawn hours across the basin, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the southeast Gulf along a
trough. Winds and seas will increase following a cold front
expected to enter the northwest Gulf early today, reach from near
Port Charlotte, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by early Sun, then
sweep to the southeast of the area Sun night. Fresh to strong
winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft will follow the front. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds
over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge extends from N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to the N
coast of central Cuba. Middle and upper level subsidence is
limiting shower activity over the basin, but isolated showers and
seen in the SW Caribbean, south of 15N between 75W and 82.5W.
isolated showers might also be occurring near SW Haiti. The latest
ASCAT satellite wind data shows moderate winds across the southern
and western Caribbean, with gentle winds over the NE Caribbean, to
the NE of a line extending from 13N61W to Jamaica. Fresh E to SE
winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft
across the basin, except 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean, west of 84W,
highest in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds off Honduras between
high pressure over Cuba and lower pressure off Belize will
diminish early this morning as the high pressure weakens. This
pattern will leave mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight
seas across the Caribbean through late Sun. A cold front will
move into the Yucatan Channel Sun night, start to slow down and
weaken from central Cuba to northern Belize Mon, then stall and
dissipate from eastern Cuba to central Honduras through mid-week.
Moderate to fresh N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas will follow the front
across the northwest Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning over the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Sean and AL94.

A stationary front extends from 27N73W to Jacksonville, FL. Fresh
SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are occurring to the NE of the
stationary front, mainly west of 76W and north of 29N. A cold
front extends from the gale force low to 27N73W, mentioned in the
Special Features section. Scattered moderate convection is seen
within 60 nm either side of a line from 27N56.5W to 24.5N64W.
Isolated to scattered showers are from 23N to 27N between 64W and
77W. A warm front extends SE from the gale force low. Scattered
moderate convection is noted north of 27N between 47W and 51W.
The area of winds 20 kt or stronger associated with the gale force
low pressure stretches north of 24N between 47W and 63W. A
surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure near 29N22W to
24N40W to 19N58W to the southeast Bahamas to the Straits of
Florida. Gentle or weaker winds prevail to the south of a line
stretching from Jacksonville, FL to 27N75W to 23N67W to 21N59W to
21.5N50W. Seas in this area are 2 to 5 ft. To the north of that
line, winds are moderate or stronger.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 26N47W to 25N41W to
26N36W with isolated showers near and north of the trough. Gentle
or weaker winds prevail near the surface ridge mentioned in the
previous paragraph. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft prevail north of a line extending from 21.5N50W to 25N40W to
30N25W.

For the forecast W of 55W, Winds and seas will diminish through
early today as the front weakens and shifts east of the area.
Expect fresh to strong winds over waters north of 28N late Sat and
Sun associated with a second front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast Sat night. A reinforcing trough will
maintain fresh to strong NW winds off northeast Florida Mon. The
front will slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba by
early Tue, then stall from 31N60W through eastern Cuba by mid
week.

$$
Hagen
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