[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 140238
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192023
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023

Sean is still showing signs of life with a recent burst of
convection in the northeast quadrant obscuring the surface
circulation.  Unfortunately, no new satellite surface wind data is
available this evening. Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates
range between 25-45 kt. The initial intensity is held at a possibly
generous 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB final T-number of T2.5.

The storm has noticeably slowed since the last advisory, with an
estimated motion of 290/7 kt.  The model guidance continues to
insist Sean will turn northwestward on the southwest side of a weak
ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  However, this has yet to occur.
As the cyclone weakens and becomes more shallow, it is expected to
bend back to west-northwest.  Once again, the latest NHC track
forecast was shifted south of the previous prediction, and favors
the southern side of the guidance envelope due to the recent
northward bias of the models.

There have been no changes to the official intensity forecast.
Sean is expected to continue to weaken in the relatively hostile
atmospheric conditions and become a remnant low later this weekend.
Most model guidance shows the storm opening into a trough early
next week, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 15.1N  42.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 15.8N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 16.7N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 17.5N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 18.0N  47.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1200Z 18.4N  49.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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