[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Gulf of Mexico/Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-force
Wind Warning:

A 1000 mb low pressure center is near 27N94W, in the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the
1000 mb low pressure center to the northern coastal areas of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A warm front
extends eastward, and southeastward, from the 1000 mb low
pressure center, to south Florida just to the south of Lake
Okeechobee, and into the Atlantic Ocean to 28N76W. The front
is stationary from 28N76W to 29N66W. The front is cold front
29N66W, beyond 31N53W. Mostly moderate to some rough seas
are from 24N northward from the Florida Big Bend westward.
Slight seas are elsewhere. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is from 120 nm to 420 nm of the center in the
E quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
is from the warm front northward; and affecting the NW half
of Cuba. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the rest
of the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure center is expected
to strengthen along the front. The system will move eastward,
through the N central and NE Gulf this afternoon through
evening, then inland through N Florida tonight. Strong
convective precipitation, and strong to gale-force winds,
will accompany this weather system, from the northern Gulf
through tonight. The sea heights are expected to peak near
13 feet this evening. The low pressure center will move
through the W Atlantic Ocean early on Thursday. Expect strong
to gale-force winds to the east of northern and central
Florida on Thursday night. The feature will move to the east
of 75W on Thursday night, and through the NE Atlantic Ocean
from Friday through early Sat. Scattered thunderstorms with
large and confused seas are expected to accompany this low
pressure center. The sea heights are expected to peak around
15 feet on Friday. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST,
that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

TROPICAL STORM SEAN:

The center of Tropical Storm Sean, at 11/1500 UTC, is near
10.9N 34.4W. Sean is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees,
11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to
45 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is:
within 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are:
within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 13 feet. Mostly
moderate to some rough seas are within 1000 nm of T.S. SEAN
in the SW semicircle. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 400 nm of the center in the
N semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Tropical Storm Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 09N. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
480 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 360 nm
of the center in the S semicircle. The precipitation pattern
has been showing some signs of organization. The environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for some more development
of this system during the next several days. The wave will be
moving westward through the eastern and central sections of
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Please, refer to the website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details.

A tropical wave is inland, from northern Guatemala southward,
along 90W/91W, from 18N southward. The wave is moving
westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is on either side of the tropical
wave, in Central America, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border
areas of Senegal and The Gambia, to the INVEST-AL94 1011 mb
low pressure center, to 09N28W. The monsoon trough also is
along 09N between 39W and 45W. The ITCZ is along 09N45W 10N56W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in clusters in
the coastal plains of Sierra Leone and Liberia. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area
that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
1000 mb low pressure center, the gale-force winds, and the
warm front.

A warm front extends from SW Florida to 1000 mb low
pressure near 26N94W. The front and low pres will lift
northward today, reaching along 29N-30N. The low pres is
expected to strengthen along the front this morning over
the NW Gulf, and move E-NE across the N central and NE Gulf
this afternoon and evening, then inland across N Florida
tonight. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms and
strong to gale force winds will accompany this low
pressure system and frontal boundary across the northern
Gulf through tonight. High pressure across the Atlantic will
build modestly westward into the eastern Gulf Fri through
early Sat, before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf
Sat morning and across the entire basin by Sun evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is inland, from northern Guatemala southward,
along 90W/91W, from 18N southward. The wave is moving
westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is on either side of the tropical
wave, in Central America, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico.

Fresh SE winds cover much of the northeastern two-thirds
of the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.
Moderate seas are nearly everywhere from 80W eastward,
accept for the waters that are about 210 nm to the north
of Panama. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea, including in the waters that are about 210 nm to
the north of Panama.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W westward, beyond
Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 74W
westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in the water
vapor imagery, from Nicaragua eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 11/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 0.57 in
Monterrey in Mexico; and 0.17 in Montego Bay in Jamaica.

.Weak high pressure across the Atlantic near 35N63W
extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas, and will shift
slightly W-NW into Thu morning. Moderate to fresh E trade winds
will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through
Thu then gradually diminish into the weekend. Scattered
thunderstorms will prevail across the NW basin today NE of a
tropical wave currently along 90W. Fresh SE to S winds will
develop across the outer Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean today
and become strong tonight through Thu night as low pressure
moves eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
Tropical Storm Sean. Please, read the Tropical Waves section,
for details about the INVEST-AL94 low pressure center and
tropical wave.

A warm front extends from a 1000 mb 27N49W Gulf of Mexico
low pressure center, to just to the south of Lake Okeechobee,
and into the Atlantic Ocean to 28N76W. The front is stationary
from 28N76W to 29N66W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between
40W and 70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
northward from 70W westward. The low pressure center is
expected to strengthen along the front. The system will move
eastward, through the N central and NE Gulf this afternoon
through evening, then inland through N Florida tonight.
Strong convective precipitation, and strong to gale-force
winds, will accompany this weather system, from the northern
Gulf through tonight. The sea heights are expected to peak
near 13 feet this evening. The low pressure center will move
through the W Atlantic Ocean early on Thursday. Expect strong
to gale-force winds to the east of northern and central
Florida on Thursday night. The feature will move to the east
of 75W on Thursday night, and through the NE Atlantic Ocean
from Friday through early Sat. Scattered thunderstorms with
large and confused seas are expected to accompany this low
pressure center. The sea heights are expected to peak around
15 feet on Friday.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 23N62W.

A surface trough is along 31N32W 21N48W. The surface trough is
to the south of a low pressure center that is to the north of
the area. Mostly fresh to some strong westerly winds are from
23N northward between 20W and 50W. Mostly moderate to some
rough seas are near this surface trough. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 210 nm to the south of
the surface trough between 20W and 38W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W
and 50W.

Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are from 26N northward
between 45W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate to some rough
seas are: from 26N northward between 30W and 40W. Mostly
moderate to slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean.

Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic near
35N63W extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas. A weak
stationary front extending from 29N66W to just N of the NW
Bahamas will drift N through tonight, while weak high pressure
shifts W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Low pressure
along a Gulf of Mexico front is expected to move eastward
across N Florida tonight, then continue eastward and emerge
across the W Atlc, bringing strong to gale force winds east
of northern and central Florida Thu, then move E of 75W Thu
night, and across the NE waters Fri through early Sat.
Scattered thunderstorms with large and confused seas are
expected to accompany this low pressure system.

$$
mt/nr
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net