[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-force Wind Warning (INVEST-AL93):

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 21N94.5W, in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. The southwesternmost point of a NE-to-SW
oriented stationary front reaches about 160 nm to the E of the
low pressure center. Moderate seas, in general, are in the
southern half of the Gulf of Mexico. The comparatively highest
seas are 7 feet near 96W along the coast of Mexico. Slight seas
are elsewhere in the area. Moderate or slower wind speeds are from
90W eastward. Fresh winds are within 300 nm of the center in the
N semicircle. Mostly moderate winds are in the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 90 nm to the north of the stationary front
between 88W and 93W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 21N to 26N from 86W westward. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The overall precipitation
pattern still is disorganized. The environmental conditions appear
to be only marginally favorable for more development. The surface
pressures have been falling near the system. The window of
opportunity for development during the next day or so is short.
The system is forecast to merge with a developing western Gulf of
Mexico frontal system by Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later today, if necessary. The system is forecast to produce gale-
force winds in parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday,
and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast by the latter
part of this week. Please, read bulletins and forecasts from your
local National Weather Service office, and high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, for more information.
Please, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast, at
www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for details.

The Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (INVEST-AL92):

A tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 15N southward. A 1009 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 09.5N.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of
the center in the SW semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 06N to 14N between 26W and 38W. The
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during
the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move toward
the west-northwest or toward the northwest in the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is high.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N southward.
The wave is moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered
strong is about 225 nm to the NE of the northernmost part of the
tropical wave, and within 180 nm to the SW of Cuba. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 500 nm to the east
of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the
west of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to the 1009 mb low pressure center that is
the subject of the INVEST-AL92, to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from
08N41W, to 08N45W, 10N52W and 10N59W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 13N from 22W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder
of the area that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
INVEST-AL93 1005 mb low pressure center, that is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 25N northward, away from the INVEST-AL93 low pressure center.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to
offshore of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. 1005 mb low pressure is
located near 21N94W. The front and low pres will lift northward
today through Wed, reaching along 28N. The low pres is expected to
strengthen along the front tonight over the NW Gulf, and move
eastward across the N central and NE Gulf Wed through Wed evening,
then inland across N Florida Wed night. Scattered to numerous
strong thunderstorms and strong to gale force winds will accompany
this low pressure system and frontal boundary across the northern
Gulf late tonight through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N southward. The wave is
moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is
about 225 nm to the NE of the northernmost part of the tropical
wave, and within 180 nm to the SW of Cuba. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 500 nm to the east
of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the
west of the tropical wave.

Fresh SE winds are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate
winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or
slower winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas are nearly everywhere
from 80W eastward, accept for the waters that are about 210 nm to
the north of Panama. Slight seas are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea, including in the waters that are about 210 nm to
the north of Panama.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 75W westward, beyond
Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: nearby
precipitation is to the east of the 84W/85W tropical wave.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in the water
vapor imagery, from Jamaica eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 10/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 1.45 in Merida
in Mexico; 1.01 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.57 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica; 0.12 in Bermuda; and 0.07 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

Weak high pressure across the Atlantic near 23N61W extends a
ridge westward to the SE Bahamas, and will shift slightly W-NW
through Thu morning. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail
across the eastern and central Caribbean today then become
easterly tonight through Thu, pulsing to strong near the coast of
NW Venezuela and N Colombia Tue evening. Scattered thunderstorms
will prevail across the NW basin through Wed near a tropical wave
currently along 84W. Fresh SE to S winds will develop across the
NW Caribbean late tonight and become strong Wed evening through
Thu as low pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of Honduras will remain fresh through
Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
INVEST-AL92 low pressure center and tropical wave.

A stationary front is along 31N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
NW Bahamas, the Straits of Florida, to the south central Gulf of
Mexico, toward the SW Gulf of Mexico 1005 mb low pressure center.
A surface trough is about 210 nm to the southeast of the
stationary front. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 21N to 27N between 68W and 75W reaching
parts of the SE Bahamas, and to the NE of the Bahamas. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 50W westward, mostly
from 23N northward.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 23N62W.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N54W, to 28N60W,
to 24N70W, to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the line
30N36W 25N60W 20N70W.

A surface trough is along 31N46W 21N50W. The surface trough is to
the south of a frontal boundary that is to the north of the area.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
northward between 30W and 50W.

A surface ridge is along 27N26W beyond 31N19W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are from 19N northward from 40W eastward. The
moisture remains from a frontal boundary that has been dissipating
during the last 24 hours.

Mostly moderate to some fresh N winds are within 500 nm to the
west of the coast of Africa from 19N northward. Moderate winds are
from 25N northward between 40W and 50W, with the 31N46W 21N50W
surface trough. Moderate winds are within 560 nm to the north of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ between the 29W/30W tropical wave and 40W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are within 870 nm to the
NW of the INVEST-AL92 low pressure center and tropical wave.
Mostly moderate or lower seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic near 23N61W
extends a ridge westward to the SE Bahamas. A weak stationary
front extending from 31N69W to just offshore the upper Florida
Keys will gradually dissipate into Wed night, as high pressure
builds W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Large NE swell will
continue across the waters east of 65W today then gradually
subside. Low pressure along a front is expected to move eastward
across N Florida Wed night, then continue eastward and emerge
across the W Atlc, bringing strong to gale force winds east of
northern and central Florida Thu night, then move E of 72W Thu
night, and across the NE waters Fri and Fri night. Thunderstorms
with large and confused seas are expected to accompany this low
pressure system.

$$
mt/sk
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