[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is along
25W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 11.5N
between 23W and 30W. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days.
A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it
moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of
development within the next 48 hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 77W, from 18N
southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis
from 12N to 20N. A broad and weak trough is reflected at the
surface with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 11.5N15.5W and
continues to low pres 1010 mb near 08N25W to near 08N47W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N47W to 10N63W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is depicted south of the trough from 05N to 11N
between the west coast of Africa and 18W. This convection is
assumed to be associated with the next tropical wave that is
expected to emerge from west Africa today. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted within 150 nm S of the trough
between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the SW Florida coast near 25.5N81W
to 22N89W to the Bay of Campeche near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A
small 1010 mb low pressure center has spun up in the past 24
hours in the east central Bay of Campeche, just SE of the front.
This is helping to focus scattered moderate to strong convection
to the south of 21N across the entire Bay. Fresh NE winds continue
between the front and 22N, while strong NW winds persist within 60
nm of the coast offshore of Veracruz. Seas are 7-10 ft in N to NE
swell S of 22N, except 10-11 ft just offshore of Veracruz.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds are north of 22N and the
stationary front with 3-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas are noted in the north Gulf, Straits of Florida, and
the Yucatan Channel. Broken multi-layered clouds and light
elevated convection prevail across much of the N and W Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will drift SE today and reach from
the Florida Straits to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
tonight, then retreat northward as a warm front Tue through Wed.
Strong NW winds behind the front offshore Veracruz, Mexico, will
diminish by late afternoon, and seas will subside to 6 ft or less
by late afternoon. Low pressure is expected to develop across the
NW Gulf Tue night and move eastward across the N central and NE
Gulf Wed through Wed evening, then inland across N Florida Wed
night. Scattered thunderstorms, strong winds, and high seas will
accompany this low pressure system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Moderate to locally fresh E to SE trades prevail across the basin
east of the tropical wave, where seas are of 4-7 ft. Skies are
nearly cloud free there. West of the tropical wave, trades are
light to gentle with seas of 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, a weak ridge alone 22N extending into the SE
Bahamas this morning will shift slightly W-NW across the
remainder of the Bahamas through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh E
to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean
into Tue night, then become easterly through Thu. Fresh S winds
will develop across the NW Caribbean early Wed and become strong
Wed night through Thu as low pressure moves eastward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Active convection will accompany the
northern portion of the tropical wave and shift into the NW
Caribbean through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections
above.

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to SE Florida near Boca
Raton. Moderate N to NE winds are noted north of the front, where
seas are 3 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 124 nm SE of this front. A surface trough to
the E is nearly stationary from 25N71W to 28N61W, and is the
focus of scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 120
NM either side of the trough. Another weak surface trough extends
from 26N49W to 31N50W. In between these two trough reside 1015 mb
high pressure centered near 22N60W. Farther east, a weakening
stationary front extends from 31N27W to 22N44W. Isolated moderate
convection in the eastern Atlantic is within 180 nm E of this
front.

Long period northerly swell continues across much of the Atlantic
waters, with wave heights of 8-12 ft north of 15N between 18W and
61W. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades prevail across the tropics
S of 15N and W of 40W, where seas are 5-8 ft in merging N and SE
swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening cold front stalled
across the NW waters to south Florida will drift SE eastward of
the Bahamas today, then gradually dissipate through mid-week, as
high pressure builds W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Large
NE swell will continue across the northern waters through Tue
before gradually subsiding. Low pressure is expected to move
eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then continue eastward
across the NW waters Thu, move E of 70W Thu night, and across the
NE waters Fri and Fri night.

$$
Stripling
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