[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is along 23W,
south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is
along the wave near 08N23W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N to 12N between 18W and 31W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by midweek while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This
disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of development within the next 48
hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, from 18N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 18N between 71W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 10N15W and
continues to 08N43W. The ITCZ continues from 08N43W to 09N60W.
Aside from the convection related to the Special Feature's
low/wave, no significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An early season cold front extends 26N81W to 21N93W to 18N94W.
Strong winds and seas are 8-11 ft from 19N to 27N west of 88W. A
1012 mb low pres is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche near
19N92W enhancing scattered showers in the area. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh NE winds are analyzed north of the cold front
with 4-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted
in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the front will stall from the Florida Straits
to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Mon, then retreat
northward as a warm front Tue night through Wed. Strong NW winds
behind the front offshore Veracruz, Mexico, will diminish Mon. A low
pressure is expected to develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and
move E across the N central and NE Gulf Wed, then inland across N
Florida Wed night. Thunderstorms and strong winds may accompany
this low pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Moderate to fresh trades are east of the tropical wave with seas
of 4-6 ft. West of the tropical wave, trades are light to gentle
with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic
extends a ridge westward along 21N to the Turks and Caicos.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern
and central Caribbean into Tue night. Fresh S winds will develop
across the NW Caribbean Wed into Thu as low pressure crosses
eastward through the Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections above.

A cold front extends across the NW Forecast Waters from 31N69W to
26N80W. A weak surface trough is from 24N50W to 30N51W. 1015 mb
high pressure is near 20N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
just north of the high in a narrow convergence zone, from 24N to
27N between 56W and 68W. Farther east, a weakening stationary
front extends from 31N24W to 23N39W. A 1015 mb high pressure is
centered near 28N23W. Scattered moderate convection in the
eastern Atlantic is from 23N to 31N between 17W and 25W.

Long period northerly swell with significant wave heights of 8-12
ft is north of 16N between 19W and 60W. Seas are 4-7 ft north of
16N and west of 60W in the W Atlantic. Seas are also 4-7 ft
across the tropical Atlantic south of 16N.

For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central
Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 21N to the Turks and
Caicos. The cold front currently will gradually slide east early
this week but remain generally N of 25N through mid-week, as high
pressure builds W to the south. Large NE swell will continue
across the NE waters through Mon night. Low pressure is expected
to move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then across the far
NW waters through Thu night.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net