[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTPQ82 PGUM 081056
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tropical Storm Bolaven (15W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
856 PM ChST Sun Oct 8 2023

...TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
The latest forecast track for Tropical Storm Bolaven has shifted
slightly north with a passage favored to be near to slightly north
of Rota. However, tropical storm to typhoon conditions are still
possible for all of the Mariana Islands.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people in Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, along with
adjacent coastal waters.

.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Watch continues for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, along
with adjacent coastal waters.

A Typhoon Watch means that typhoon conditions are possible within
the next 48 hours.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan
Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Please listen closely for any
Flood Warnings that might be issued for your area.

.STORM INFORMATION...
At 7 PM ChST, the center of Tropical Storm Bolaven (15W) was located
near LATITUDE 9.7N and LONGITUDE 152.2E. This was about 560 miles
east-southeast of Guam. Storm motion was west at 8 mph. Storm
intensity has increased to 45 mph.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A Typhoon Watch is in effect. When making decisions, do not focus
on the exact forecast track. TS Bolaven (15W) continues to strengthen
over northern Chuuk State and is moving west. It is too early to
provide exact wind and coastal inundation forecast values for
specific locations in the Marianas. A general concern should be for
the possibility of at least extensive damage somewhere within the
Mariana Islands.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For those under a watch, continue preparations for your home or
business according to your typhoon disaster plan. Listen for possible
warnings and be ready to evacuate if necessary. Heed the advice of
local officials and comply with any orders that are issued.

For interests at ports, docks and marinas, it is recommended that you
perform the prescribed preparations according to your emergency
operations plan for tropical cyclones. If you live on a boat, begin
to safely secure your craft and make plans to leave it for adequate
land-based shelter. Listen for possible warnings.

Regarding the Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan coastal waters, small
craft should return to port or seek safe harbor.

Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

For additional precautionary and preparedness information, please
refer to detailed recommendations from your local emergency
management agencies.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan, Guam around 3 AM ChST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.


GUZ001-MPZ001>003-081900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.4015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
856 PM ChST Sun Oct 8 2023

...TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay calm and keep informed. If your home is vulnerable to high
winds, or you live in a low-lying area along the coast or any
location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated shelter or
ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or friends.

Some suggested items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit,
medicines and prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books,
toiletries, a battery-powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with
extra batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with
shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects
indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. Do this
as early as possible.

&&

...TIMING AND PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/TYPHOON CONDITIONS...
The onset of tropical storm conditions could start as early as
Tuesday morning with the onset of typhoon force conditions possibly
by Tuesday evening. The probability for tropical storm force wind
speed is 70 to 90 percent. The probability for typhoon force wind
speed is 20 to 30 percent for Rota, Tinian and Saipan. The
probability of typhoon force wind speed for Guam is 10 to 20 percent.

...WIND INFORMATION...
As Tropical Storm Bolaven (15W) moves closer to the Marianas, the
threat of sustained high winds will increase. The latest forecast is
for tropical storm force winds to come in as early as early Tuesday
morning. Strong tropical storm or typhoon force winds are possible by
Tuesday evening. A general concern should be for the possibility of
at least damaging winds somewhere within this area.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
Seas of 22 to 26 feet are possible. Hazardous surf conditions are
possible beginning Monday evening and continuing through at least
Thursday. Highest surf conditions expected to begin along east and
possibly south facing reefs on Tuesday as Bolaven nears. Surf
increasing and likely becoming dangerous for north and west facing
reefs on Wednesday as Bolaven passes to the northwest of the
Marianas. Inundation of 2 to 4 feet is possible.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Heavy rainfall is likely from late Monday evening through Tuesday and
into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches, with local
amounts in excess of 12 inches are possible. A Flash Flood Watch is
in effect starting Monday afternoon to at least Wednesday afternoon.

$$

Slagle
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