[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from 06N to 17N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
near 70.5W, S of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are along the northern half of the wave and are
affecting the Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 10N43W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 11N61W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave
described above, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
14N and E of 26W. This convection may be associated with the
next tropical wave that is emerging from the west Africa.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary extends across the western half of the basin,
analyzed as a stationary front from 30N87W to 19N95W. Fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds prevail behind the front N of 21N.
Seas of 4 to 7 ft follow the front. Light to gentle variable
winds and slight seas are elsewhere ahead of the front.

For the forecast, a cold front from near Mobile Bay to just
south of Tampico, Mexico will move slowly SE and reach from the
Florida Panhandle to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat morning.
The front will then push SE and reach from the Florida Big Bend
to just S of Veracruz Sat afternoon, then from Venice, Florida
to 20N95W to the central Bay of Campeche Sun morning before
weakening and stalling across the Straits of Florida to 20N95W
on Mon. High pressure and fresh to strong winds will follow the
front through Sun evening, then continue offshore of Veracruz
through early Mon. The front will then drift northward Tue
through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across
most of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the eastern to central Caribbean.

Moderate SE winds and seas to 6 ft are to the E of the wave axis
in the eastern Caribbean. Ahead of the wave and in the remainder
Caribbean, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas
prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic
extends a ridge westward along 23N into the SE Bahamas, in the
wake of Philippe. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will
prevail across the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Expect light
to gentle winds elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
from a tropical wave along 67-68W will continue over the central
and eastern Caribbean through tonight. Moderate easterly trades
will return to the east and central Caribbean, and moderate SE
winds will develop across the NW Caribbean Tue night, as the
Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds across Florida.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please, refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections above for convection details in the tropical Atlantic.

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are centered N of
31N. Its proximity is enhancing fresh winds and seas to 7 to 12
ft N of 27N between 57W-71W. Moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft prevail elsewhere N of 22.5N between 57W-75W. Scattered
moderate convection is N of 29N between 65.5W-69W. A warm front
extends from 31N58.9W to 29N57W. This warm front is producing
scattered to moderate convection north of 28N between 55W and
60.6W. Over the eastern north Atlantic, a stationary front
extends from 31N29.5W SW to 21N46W. Gentle northerly winds and
rough seas to 10 ft follow this front while moderate to fresh SW
winds are within 150 nm ahead of it with seas to 7 ft. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also ahead of the
front to 30W. In the western tropical Atlantic, moderate
northeast to east winds prevail south of 19N between 48W and the
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle variable winds and slight to
moderate seas are elsewhere in the subtropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe is now
NW of Bermuda and will continue moving away from the region
tonight. Weak high pressure is building a ridge westward along
23N and into the SE Bahamas in the wake of Philippe. Cyclonic
winds will gradually diminish over the waters N of 27N through
Saturday night. Large SE to SE swell across the northeastern
waters will gradually diminish and give way to large NE swell
Sat night through Sun night. Weak high pressure will build W-NW
along 24-25N across the Bahamas and into Florida Mon through Wed.

$$
KRV
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