[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe is centered near 30.7N 64.6W at
06/1500 UTC or 100 nm S of Bermuda, moving NNE at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated
near 18 ft, to the east of the center. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is also to the east of the center from 25N to
35N between 53W and 62W. On the forecast track, the system will
continue passing Bermuda today and will reach the coast of
Atlantic Canada or eastern New England Saturday night or Sunday.
Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Atlantis has been repositioned
based on scatterometer, low level precipitable water imagery and
satellite derived winds at the 700 hPa level. The axis of the
tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N with axis near 42W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to
17N and between 30W and 44W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea with
axis near 67W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm east and 120 nm west
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to 10N21W to 10N28W. The ITCZ extends from 10N29W to
09N35W to 09N40W then resumes near 09N44W to 08N51W to 06N58W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 11W and
24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A former stationary front has transitioned to a cold front this
morning and now stretches from Mississippi to near Tampico,
Mexico. A scatterometer pass show moderate N to NE winds behind
the front N of 24N and fresh to locally strong S of 24N and across
the coastal and offshore waters of Tampico, Mexico. Seas of 4 to 6
ft follow the front. Light to gentle variable winds and slight
seas are elsewhere ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold will reach from Mobile Bay to near
Cabo Rojo, Mexico late this evening, then reach from the Florida
Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sat afternoon, and from South
Florida to 21N96W to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun
afternoon. High pressure and fresh to locally strong winds will
follow the front through Sun evening. The front will weaken and
then drift northward Mon through Wed as southerly return flow
gradually develops across most of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms S of 15.5N accompany
the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean along 64W.
Fresh to locally strong SE winds are noted across the far eastern
Caribbean to the E of the wave axis, with seas 4 to 6 ft.
Easterly swell from the Atlantic is likely moving through the
larger Caribbean passages in this area as well. Light to gentle
breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere, due to a
relatively weak ridging north of the area. Broken bands of
moderate convection extend from the E and W ends of Hispaniola, SW
across the basin to Colombia, and are trailing convergence lines
extending into the SE side of Philippe.

For the forecast, Philippe will continue moving north-northeast
and cross near Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern
Caribbean through Sat. Expect light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands
of Philippe, and a tropical wave along 64W, are impacting the
eastern and central Caribbean this morning and will persist
through tonight. Moderate easterly trades will return to the east
and central Caribbean Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N33W and
continues southwestward to 25N48W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary, with
southwesterly fresh to locally strong winds. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas of
5 to 8 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic between the
front and Philippe. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
found south of 20N and west of 45W. Seas in this region are 5 to
7 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are
occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 18N and east of
25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent. An deep layered upper low is across
western portions between Philippe and Florida, centered near
28N73.5W, and currently producing tranquil weather over the waters
S of 31N and W of 74W.

For the forecast, Philippe will continue a north-northeast motion
and cross near Bermuda this afternoon and evening, then is
expected to become a post- tropical cyclone Saturday afternoon.
Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of
Philippe. Look for seas to diminish to the N of 28N Sat afternoon
and evening as swell from Philippe fades across the regional
waters.

$$
Ramos
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