[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052233
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 27.0N 66.2W at 05/2100
UTC or 330 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are presently
around 17 ft, mainly to the east of the center. A broad mid to
upper trough is west Philippe, shearing the system and bringing
dry air into the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is 75 to 150 nm to the northeast of the center.
Philippe is expected to maintain a general northward motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through late
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass
near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast
of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two.
Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but
Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday
as it approaches Atlantic Canada and eastern New England.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W, south
of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 06N to 09N and between 36W and 42W.

A tropical wave is across the Lesser Antilles along 61W, south of
18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N and between 59W and
63W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 08N40W and
07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 08N50W to 11N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N and
between 29W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate northerly winds follow a cold front extending from near
the Sabine Pass to just south of Corpus Christi, Texas. A few
showers are active south of the cold front southeast of the mouth
of the Rio Grande. Mostly light to gentle breezes are noted
elsewhere. Combined seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary, then
will be reinforced by Fri evening, reaching from the Florida Big
Bend to near Brownsville, Texas. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from N
Florida to the central Gulf near 25N90W to near Veracruz, Mexico
by Sat afternoon, and from South Florida to 22N90W to the central
Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. High pressure will follow the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the tropical wave
moving across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds are noted across the far eastern Caribbean.
Easterly swell from the Atlantic may be breaching some of the
passages in this area as well. Light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3
ft seas are noted elsewhere, due to a relatively weak ridging
north of the area.

For the forecast, light to gentle trade winds will be over the
basin through the next few days, except for moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds in the eastern Caribbean through at least Fri.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands
of Philippe combined with a tropical wave, with axis along 61W,
are impacting the eastern Caribbean, including the Lesser
Antilles. This convective activity is forecast to persist tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N36W and
continues southwestward to 27N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate to
fresh westerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas
of 4-7 ft. The remainder of the discussion is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found south of 20N
and west of 40W. Seas in this region are 5-8 ft. Similar winds and
seas are also occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of
18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Philippe will move to 29.2N 65.8W Fri morning, and will be N of
the forecast area near 32.5N 65.7W Fri afternoon. Philippe is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weak high
pressure will build across the area in the wake of Philippe.

$$
Christensen
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