[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030004 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 3 2023

Updated for 0000 UTC Philippe Information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.6N 62.0W at 02/0000
UTC or 70 nm ESE of St. Martin, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Philippe continues to
remain under northwesterly wind shear. Numerous strong convection
is occurring mainly in the SE quadrant within 270 nm of the
center, including over Guadeloupe and Dominica. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere within 390 nm of the center in
the SE semicircle, including near or over Martinique, St. Lucia
and St. Vincent. The center of Philippe will continue to pass
near the northern Leeward Islands through tonight, then move north
of those islands on Tuesday. Note that the strongest winds and
heaviest rains will likely occur after the center passes. A turn
toward the north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday,
followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Philippe could
begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the
week. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 17W,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
mainly E of the wave axis over West Africa.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 45W
from 17N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers
are noted near and behind the wave axis from 08N to 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to
05N39W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N
to 09N between 20W to 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front stretches from the southern tip of Florida
westward to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W. A surface
trough continues from 25N90W to Padre Island, TX. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are located to the south of the
stationary front, and to the north of the surface trough. Fresh
E winds cover the northern Gulf of Mexico, to the north of the
stationary front and surface trough. Altimeter and buoy
observations indicate seas are 5 to 9 ft in this area, highest
from 26N to 29N between 85W and 90W. Some of those winds are
coming as far south as 24N in the Florida Straits. In the SW
Gulf, a surface trough extends from 18.5N94W to 24N96W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are seen within 180 nm of the trough
axis. Winds are gentle in the SW Gulf with 2 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the east-central Gulf
will dissipate on Tue. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
expand southward from the N waters to the central basin through
Tue night before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle winds
are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. On Sat, a new cold front
is anticipated to reach the NW Gulf and cause increasing winds
and building seas in the W portion of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe. Convection and winds over 25 kt associated
with Philippe are occurring to the east of 62W. However, large
swells from Philippe are affecting the northeast Caribbean
passages to the Atlantic Ocean.

Elsewhere, upper-level cyclonic wind flow is noted in the west-
central Caribbean. This has enhanced afternoon thunderstorms over
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and surrounding waters.
Isolated thunderstorms are noted between 72W and 78W, and also
over the SW Caribbean, S of 16N and W of 78W. Some showers and
tstorms are also occurring near Cozumel and the Isle of Youth.
Gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail across the Caribbean Sea, to
the west of 62W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 18.2N
62.2W Tue morning, 19.1N 62.6W Tue afternoon, 20.6N 63.0W Wed
morning, 22.2N 63.4W Wed afternoon, and continuing well north of
the area on Thu. Rough seas will continue near the northern
Leeward Islands and the Anegada Passage through Tue night. Light
to gentle trades will be over the basin through the next few days,
except for moderate to fresh SE winds developing in the SE
Caribbean Tue night into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe. Strong winds, rough seas and convection
associated with Philippe are currently occurring from 15N to 22N
between 56W and 63W.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends into the area near
31N59W to 26N70W where the front stalls from that point to the
southern tip of Florida near 25N81W. Fresh NE winds are NW of the
front, mainly W of 73W. Moderate N to W winds are elsewhere NW of
the front and east of 73W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft to the NW of the
front to 31N. Scattered moderate convection is south of the
stationary front over the Central Bahamas and Straits of Florida.
Similar convection is seen off the north coast of Hispaniola.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are south of the front and west of
65W. Seas are 5-7 ft west of 65W and south of the front.

In the central Atlantic, convection and thunderstorms are noted to
the north of 27N between 40W and 60W. A surface ridge axis extends
from 31N36W to 26N46W to 25N60W. To the north of this ridge axis,
fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are likely occurring north
of 29N between 45W and 54W. Fresh trades are noted in the tropical
latitudes from 13N to 22N between 30W and 52W, where seas are 7-9
ft. North of that, seas are 6-8 ft in the subtropical eastern and
central Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe will move
to 18.2N 62.2W Tue morning, 19.1N 62.6W Tue afternoon, 20.6N 63.0W
Wed morning, 22.2N 63.4W Wed afternoon, 23.9N 63.8W Thu morning,
and 26.0N 63.8W Thu afternoon. Philippe will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 30.6N 62.2W Fri afternoon.
Elsewhere, the cold front extending from 31N59W to 26N70W to the
southern tip of Florida will continue progressing eastward north
of 29N until moving east of 55W on Wed. South of 29N, the frontal
boundary will dissipate on Tue, but fresh to strong NE winds will
continue north of the Bahamas through Wed before diminishing.

$$
Hagen/Lewitsky
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