[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front stretches across
the southern Gulf of Mexico, from the northern coast of western
Cuba southwestward along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to the Mexican coast midway between Veracruz and
Coatzacoalcos. A tight pressure gradient will support gale-force
winds off the Veracruz coast through Tue night. Rough seas can
be expected with these winds. The front will exit the basin Tue.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 02.5N33W. The ITCZ extends from 02N33W to 02.5N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N
between 19W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf.

A stationary front stretches across the southern Gulf of Mexico,
from the northern coast of western Cuba southwestward along the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Mexican coast
midway between Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds continue behind the front south of 27N and
west of 88.5W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate north to northeast
winds and seas 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche and extend
northward to 24N. Scattered light to moderate rainshowers are
occurring elsewhere W of 89W.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary extends from the Straits of
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. A tight pressure gradient will
support gale-force winds off the Veracruz coast through Tue
night. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. The front
will exit the basin on Tue. Conditions across the Gulf will
improve on Wed. Strong return flow will set up across the
northern Gulf on Thu and Thu night ahead of the next approaching
front that will push off the Texas coast late this week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak high pressure extends across the north central Atlantic to
eastern Cuba, producing a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean south of 15N, where seas are
7 to 11 ft. Off the coast of Barranquilla, Colombia winds are
near gale with seas to 11 ft. Skies are mostly clear across much
of the basin, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms over
the Gulf of Honduras. In the eastern basin, moderate easterly
winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft. In the northwestern
Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds are noted to the south of
the Gulf of Mexico stationary front, with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will shift E as a cold
front moves across the western Atlantic through Wed. Fresh to
strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean will
persist through Tue, then diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu.
The cold front will sink into the NW Caribbean by tonight into
early Tue and bring brief fresh to strong NE winds behind the
front in the Yucatan Channel Tue into Tue night. The front will
gradually stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by Tue
night before dissipating later in the week.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N70W to the Straits of
Florida. Behind the front, moderate to fresh winds are occurring
with seas to 8 ft. Ahead of the front and north of 28N between
61W and 69W southwesterly wind are strong to fresh with seas to
8 ft. Across the rest of the western Atlantic, a weak ridge is
beginning to slide eastward in response to the front. Gentle to
moderate S to SW winds prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas.

A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 37N36W to
22.5N49.5W then a stationary decaying front is depicted from
that point to 23N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm ahead of the cold front, to the E of 41W. Mainly
gentle winds are ahead and behind the front with seas 5 to 6 ft
around it. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 4
to 7 ft, except for moderate winds in the Tropical Atlantic.
Farther south, a weak 1015 mb low pressure is centered near
25N35W and trough extends from the low 30N30W. Moderate
scattered convection is noted along the trough.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N70W to
the Straits of Florida. Strong winds continue ahead of the front
with seas to 8 ft. The front will stretch from near 31N59W to
central Cuba by Tue evening, and reach from 31N50W to eastern
Cuba by Wed evening. The strong winds ahead of the front will
diminish by Tue morning, with moderate to fresh winds continuing
behind it through Wed. The front will briefly become stationary
along 23N Thu as high pressure shifts E into the Atlantic behind
it. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri
while becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves E of
Bermuda.

$$
KRV
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