[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The primary cold front stretches
from Everglades City, Florida to near 22N90W, where it becomes a
stationary front that extends to the Mexican coast near 21N97W.
The secondary front stretches from the Big Bend of Florida to the
Mexican coast near 23N98W. Fresh to strong N winds are ongoing
behind the fronts with seas to 8 ft. As the first front sweeps
over the western Gulf, gale- force winds will develop off the
Veracruz coast this evening. These winds will drop just below
gale-force tonight, and will pulse back to gale- force by Tue
afternoon through Tue night. Seas are expected to be rough with
these winds. As the front dissipates across the Bay of Campeche by
Tue night, conditions will improve on Wed across the basin.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N27W. The ITCZ extends from 03N27W to 03N44W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from south of 07N between 20W and
41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

Two cold fronts are noted across the basin. Fresh to strong N
winds continue behind the fronts. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with the
strongest winds off the coast of Mexico, from 21N to 24N and W of
93W. Seas range 4 to 6 ft elsewhere behind the fronts. Ahead of
the primary cold front, light to gentle winds with seas to 3 ft
are noted. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, a couple of frontal boundaries will merge today
across the basin. A tight pressure gradient will support gale
force winds across the Bay of Campeche this evening through Tue
night. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. The front will
reach from the Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche this
evening, then mostly exit the basin with the front lingering
across the eastern Bay of Campeche on Tue. Conditions across the
Gulf will improve on Wed. Strong return flow will set up across
the northern Gulf on Thu and Thu night ahead of the next
approaching front that will push off the Texas coast late week.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure extends across the northern Caribbean. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the Eastern Pacific Monsoon trough
south of 11N and west of 81W. Otherwise, no significant convection
is observed at this time. A large area of fresh to strong winds
are occurring in the south-central Caribbean off the Colombia
coast with seas 8 to 10 ft. In the eastern basin, moderate
easterly winds prevail with seas 3 to 5 ft. In the northwestern
Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will shift east as a cold
front moves across the western Atlantic through Tue. Fresh to
strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean will persist
through Tue, then diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. The cold
front will sink into the NW Caribbean by tonight into early Tue
and gradually stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by Tue
night before dissipating later in the week. Brief fresh to strong
NE winds can be expected behind the front the Yucatan Channel Tue
afternoon into Tue night.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front has pushed off the NE Florida coast and extends from
a 1006 mb low pressure near 33N73W to Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Ahead and behind the front, fresh to strong winds are occurring
north of 27N with seas to 8 ft. Across the rest of the western
Atlantic, a weak ridge is beginning to slide eastward in response
to the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail with 4 to 6 ft
seas.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from a 1014 mb low
pressure near 35N39W to 24N48W then becomes stationary from that
point to 24N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75
nm ahead of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead
and behind the front with seas 6 to 8 ft around it. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere in this region with seas 4 to 6 ft.
Farther south, a trough extends from 18N52W to 14N58W. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted east of the trough axis to 50W between 16N
and 18N. Winds are moderate with seas to 8 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, a trough extends across the area from
30N29W to a low near 24N36W. No significant convection is
associated with this feature. Moderate winds prevail along the
southern periphery of the low within 30 nm of the low center. A
second trough extends from 30N24W to 21N32W with no significant
convection around it. Seas to 6 ft are noted between these two
features. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the
eastern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N68W through the Straits of Florida by this evening, stretch
from near 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue evening, and reach from
31N50W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening. The front will bring strong
winds ahead of it through tonight, with moderate to fresh winds
behind it through Wed. The front will briefly become stationary
along 23N Thu as high pressure shifts E into the Atlantic behind
it. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri
while becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves E of
Bermuda.

$$
Nepaul
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net