[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to
05N between 13W and 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from South Padre Island, Texas
to 1012 mb low pressure centered near 28.8N89.7W, with a warm
front then continuing to Cedar Key, Florida. Recent surface
observations indicate strong to near-gale force N winds across
the Gulf waters north of the front, with strong to near-gale force
S winds south of the front to 26N. Seas are 5-8 ft across the
Gulf north of 26N. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N to
31N between 83W and 88W.

Elsewhere, a weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. In
remaining waters, gentle southerly winds south of 24N increase to
moderate to fresh speeds from 24N to 26N. Seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the low will move E-NE and through the Florida
Big Bend this afternoon and evening, and drag the cold front
across the basin, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz
this evening, from near Fort Myers to the central Bay of Campeche
Mon morning, and from western Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula and
the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue morning. The front will move
southeast of the basin Tue night as high pressure settles in over
the region. Fresh to strong winds will follow the cold front,
except in the SW Gulf where strong to near gale force winds are
expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging across the Caribbean provides for gentle to moderate
trades across the basin. The most recent satellite scatterometer
data depicts an area of fresh trades in the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5-7 ft in
the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the eastern and western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will remain N of the
basin through Tue and maintain moderate to fresh trade winds
across the eastern and central Caribbean, while mainly gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds will continue in the northwestern
Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela will
continue through the forecast period. A cold front will sink into
the NW Caribbean early Tue and gradually stall and weaken from
central Cuba to northern Belize by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from Daytona
Beach, Florida to 31N79W. Scattered showers are near this front.
1020 mb high pressure is near 29N75W, and 1019 mb high pressure is
near 29N65W. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N43W to 25N64W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are along the frontal
boundary. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N to 30N
between 43W and 49W. 1019 mb high pressure is south of the front
near 23N55W. A surface trough is from 16N52W to 11N57W just east
of the Lesser Antilles. In the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough
extends from 31N28W to 26N31W.

Light to gentle winds are north of 20N, with gentle to moderate
trades south of 20N. Satellite altimeter data indicates 7-9 ft
seas from 21N to 31N between 25W and 45W in subsiding N swell. An area
of seas to 8 ft is from 08N to 10N between 49W and 52W. Elsewhere,
seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak high pressure ridge along 29N
will shift eastward through Mon, ahead of an approaching front in
the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front is forecast to move off the
northeast Florida coast on Mon, reach from near 31N65W to 26N70W
and to the central Bahamas and western Cuba by Tue morning, then
from near 30N55W to 25N70W by Wed morning and continuing as a
stationary front across the central Bahamas and along the coast of
western Cuba. The stationary front will lift back N as a warm
front late Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either
side of the front. High pressure will build eastward across the
region Thu and Thu night.

$$
Mahoney
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