[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252143
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 03N30W. The ITCZ continues from 03N30W to the coast of French
Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough from 02N to 05N between 25W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Flamingo, Florida to 24N85W
where the front becomes a warm front extending west to a weak
1013 mb low pressure centered over the west-central Gulf near
24.5N96W. Recent scatterometer satellite and buoy data indicates
fresh NE to E winds within 120 nm north of the frontal boundary
where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5
ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the low and the front will continue to lift
northward toward the northern Gulf through early Sun. Then, a
cold front will move across the basin Sun morning, reach from the
Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, from near Fort Myers
to the central Bay of Campeche Mon morning, and from western Cuba
to the Yucatan peninsula and the E Bay of Campeche Tue morning.
The front will move southeast and south of the basin Tue night as
high pressure shifts eastward along 30N. Fresh to strong winds
will follow this front, except in the SW Gulf where strong to
near gale force winds are expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergence of moderate to fresh trade winds between Colombia and
Jamaica is supporting a line of showers with isolated
thunderstorms from roughly the Panama Canal to Bluefields,
Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the western Caribbean.
Moderate trade winds and associated seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across
the eastern and central Caribbean sections through the next few
days, while mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
will continue in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure centered near
32N71W to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. Another mostly stationary front
reaches from 31N48W to 25N65W. Farther east, a trough extends
from 1005 mb low pressure southwest of the Azores near 34N32W to
28N32W. These features break up the subtropical ridge north of
20N, supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds across the basin
south of 31N. Linger swell with waves heights of 8 to 11 ft is
evident north of 24N between 25W and 55W. Seas are also 7 to 8 ft
in the deep tropics from 07N to 15N between 45W and 50W
associated with trade winds and mixed swell. Moderate seas of 5
to 7 ft persist elsewhere. No significant convection is note
other than already mentioned near the monsoon trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front
will move eastward through Mon while dissipating. A new cold
front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida on
Mon, reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western
Cuba by Tue morning, then from near 31N55W to 25N70W by Wed
morning. From this point, the front continues as a stationary
front across the central Bahamas and the coast of western Cuba.
The stationary front will lift back north as a warm front late
Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either side of the
front.

$$
Christensen
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