[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Long period northerly swell...

A frontal system N of the area, formerly connected to Invest AL90
located near 26N41W, continue to support long period northerly
swell over the subtropical central Atlantic waters. Currently,
peak seas are up to 14 ft in the vicinity of the Invest low,
however seas to 12 ft extend as far south as 22N between 33W and
49W. The low will continue a NE track today and lift N of the area
by early Sat morning. Seas to 12 ft, however, will move away from
the region Sat evening. This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics during the next day or two. The chance
for subtropical or tropical development is likely to end by
Sunday as the low moves over much colder waters.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
04N30W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N
between 13W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to the
eastern Bay of Campeche where a 1013 mb low is analyzed. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and slight seas are basin-wide. Ongoing
moisture inflow from the E Pacific waters is supporting scattered
to isolated showers across most of the gulf.

For the forecast, the front will lift north today, bringing fresh
to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf through the weekend.
A new cold front will then push across the basin Sun morning,
extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun night and from
Fort Myers to the Bay of Camepeche Mon evening. Fresh to strong
winds will follow this front with the strongest winds affecting
the SW Gulf and potentially reaching gale force in the region of
Veracruz Mon evening into Tue morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging just N of the Caribbean continue to support
moderate to fresh trades over the central and SW waters, and
gentle to moderate winds in the eastern waters. Seas are moderate
over these regions of the Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas are ongoing in the NW waters of the basin.

For the forecast, a subtropical ridge extending across the
northern Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds in
the central and SW Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming
week. Winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to pulse
to strong speeds Sat night through Tue night. Gentle to moderate
trades in the E basin will increase to moderate to locally fresh
tonight and will continue the remainder forecast period. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean
through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features Section, for details about a
long period swell event.

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 27N70W to the Straits of
Florida, which is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of
it to 55W. Invest AL90 is centered in the central subtropical
Atlantic waters near 26N41W with a surface trough extending SW of
the low to the Leeward Islands adjacent waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, Invest AL90 will continue to support
NE swell to the regional waters of Puerto Rico, and the Leeward
Islands offshore waters, and rough seas to the waters E of 57W
today. The cold front will move E of the area tonight. Otherwise,
a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast of NE Florida
on Mon and extend from 31N58W SW to 26N70W by Tue evening and move
E of the area on Wed. Fresh to strong winds associated with this
front will affect the northern offshore waters Mon into Tue.

$$
Ramos
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