[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: In the central Atlantic, a cold front
extends from 31N38W to 1006 mb low pressure near 26N42.5W. A
stationary front continues from the low pressure to 17N53W to the
northern Leeward Islands. Ahead of the low and fronts, a trough
extends from 26N40W to 18N43W. Northerly gale force winds are
north of 25N between 43.5W and 45.5W, with peak seas to 18 ft.
Elsewhere north of 23N between 35W and 50W cyclonic winds around
the low pressure are strong to near-gale force. Seas 12 ft or
greater are north of a line from 31N38W to 22N44W to 31N53W with
peak seas to 16 ft, outside of the gale winds. Scattered moderate
convection remains E of the low, from 10N northward between 33W
and 42W. Elsewhere, seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line from
31N34W to 20N41W to 18N65W to 31N58W, including Atlantic
Exposures of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Primary
swell direction is N with a period of 10-12 seconds. The low
pressure is forecast to move east today and tomorrow, then turn to
the north and move out of the area on Saturday. Gales are
expected to end Friday afternoon, but winds will remain at near
gale-force through Saturday. This system could become a
subtropical or tropical storm late this week or over the weekend
while it loses its frontal characteristics and moves
northeastward. The chances of subtropical or tropical development
should end by early next week when the system moves over cooler
waters.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N15W to 06.5N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 06.5N19W to 04N31W to 06N45W to the coast of
French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within
90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary has become stationary from Everglades National
Park across the southern Gulf parallel to the north coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate NE winds continue within 120 nm north
of the stalled front, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. In the western
Bay of Campeche, N to NW winds are fresh within 120 nm of the
coast from Veracruz to Tampico, Mexico. Seas are 5-8 ft south of
23N. Elsewhere, high pressure over NE Mexico and the SE United
States continues to build, providing for light to gentle NE winds
and 2-4 ft seas north of 23N.

For the forecast, rough seas associated with the stalled front in
the Bay of Campeche will subside tonight. The front will lift
north by Fri, bringing moderate to fresh winds in the northern
Gulf through the weekend. A new cold front will then push across
the basin late in the weekend into early next week, potentially
bringing fresh to strong winds across the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

1010 mb low pressure is along the East Pacific Monsoon Trough in
the SW Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
to the NW Caribbean offshore of Honduras. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N west of 81W. A
surface trough is south of Hispaniola along 70W, accompanied by
scattered showers. Trades are mainly gentle across the basin,
except for moderate speeds detected by satellite scatterometer in
the central and SW Caribbean this morning.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the northern
Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the
central and SW Caribbean through Mon night. Fresh winds in the
south-central Caribbean are forecast to reach strong speeds Sat
night into Mon night. Gentle to moderate trades in the E basin
will increase to moderate to locally fresh tonight through Mon
night. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail in the NW
Caribbean the entire forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on an
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.

A cold front extends from 31N66W to the Northern Bahamas, where a
stationary front continues to near Hollywood, FL. Ahead of the
front north of 28N between 65W and 65W, SW winds are fresh to
strong and seas are 7-9 ft. A weakening frontal boundary along
the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is producing
scattered showers and supporting moderate trades. In remaining
waters across the Atlantic, prevailing trade winds are light to
gentle with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, as the W Atlantic cold front slides
eastward, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will continue to
impact the northern offshore waters N of 28N through tonight.
Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast of
NE Florida on Mon.

$$
Stripling
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