[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A 1003 mb low pressure centered near 29N50W. It is generating
gale-force north winds N of 28N between 48W and 55W. Seas are 17
to 21 ft in these gales, with a broader area of 12 ft or greater
seas N of 23N between 47W and 63W. As this low tracks
southeastward through tonight, gales and higher seas at 17 to 20
ft will also shift southeastward. As this low moves over warmer
sea surface temperatures during the next few days, environmental
conditions also appear conducive for this system to gradually
acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm
could form by the latter part of this week, as the system
continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by the
weekend. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours
and medium chance in 7 days.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front stretches from near the Florida Big Bend to the
western Bay of Campeche. Gale-force northerly winds and 13 to 15
ft seas are present at the southwestern Bay of Campeche, offshore
from Veracruz, Mexico. As the front pushes farther eastward,
reaching from S of Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche this
evening, seas will subside and winds will fall below gale levels.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale
Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends west-northwestward from 04N17W across 07N35W to
10N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 90 nm on
either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above, regarding a Gale
Warning offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

Behind the the cold that extends from N of Tampa Bay to the Bay of
Campeche, fresh winds dominate the NE Gulf, with strong N winds
over the western basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the NE Gulf, 6 to 10
ft in the NW, and 10 to 14 ft in the SW Gulf. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 60 nm SE of the front in the
NE Gulf. Over the SE Gulf, winds are light to gentle and seas are
2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas in the wake of the
front over the western Gulf will subside tonight into Thu, when
the front will stall from the Florida Everglades to the Yucatan
Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The East Pacific monsoon trough passes through northern Costa Rica
into the Caribbean Sea to a 1008 mb low north of Colombia near
13N73W. A surface trough then continues from this low to near the
northern Leeward Islands. A cluster of moderate convection is
noted NW of the low center, from 11N to 16N between 74W and 79W.
Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the
north-central basin, south of Hispaniola and at the Windward
Passage. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate and NE across the
rest of the basin, with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure that has been building southward
into the basin has started to weaken. This will relax the pressure
gradient, allowing fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage
and south of Hispaniola to diminish later today. Elsewhere, winds
will be moderate or less through late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning associated with a low pressure in the central
subtropical Atlantic.

A cold front curves SW from this low to just NE of the Leeward
Islands. N of 20N, scattered moderate convection is noted within
180 nm E of the front. Behind the front, winds are strong N of 23N
and E of 65W, with mainly moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
elsewhere. Behind the front, seas are 8 to 11 ft N of 20N and E
of 75W, with 5 to 7 ft seas farther W. N of the NW Bahamas and
offshore N Florida winds have veered southerly and increased to
fresh to locally strong as a cold front approaches from the SE
United States. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong S winds prevail
N of 23N and W of 40W. Seas in this area of higher winds are 7 to
10 ft. Farther east, modest high pressure centered near 22N35W
is leading mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds for most
waters in the eastern basin, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A surface
through from 31N25W to 25N31W has some scattered moderate
convection within about 30 nm of its axis. Moderate E trades
dominate all waters S of 23N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, as low pressure moves SE away from
the area, strong winds in the NE waters to decrease today and
tonight. A broad area of 12 to 15 ft seas N of 22N and E of 65W
will continue to propagate E, with seas falling below 10 ft by
Thu. Large N swell associate with this system will impact the
Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and adjacent Atlantic passes through
late week. Fresh to strong winds are developing offshore northern
Florida this morning in advance of the next cold front that will
push off the Florida coast later today. As this cold front crosses
the region through the end of the week, strong winds and seas of
8 to 10 ft will impact waters on both sides of the front, N of
28N.

$$
Konarik
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