[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N54W to the US
Virgin Islands. Strong to gale-force N winds are present W of the
front to 70W and N of 23W. Seas in these waters are 10-19 ft.
Strong S winds are also noted ahead of the front to 50W, N of
24N. A low pressure is developing along the front and as the low
tracks SE through Wed night, gale force winds will continue in the
forecast waters through Wed afternoon along with a broad area of
strong winds on both sides of the front N of 23N and E of 65W.
High seas over 20 ft will accompany the strong to gale-force
winds. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward
across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface
temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical
characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the
latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward
followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend. This system has
a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance in 7
days. Regardless of development, northerly swell will lead to seas
of 12 ft or greater N of 20N and E of 65W into late week.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from
Mississippi to Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted ahead of the front, especially north of
27N. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are found behind
the cold front, with the strongest winds occurring off Veracruz.
Seas are 7-11 ft behind the front. The front is forecast to reach
from the western Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche
tonight, with gale force winds developing off Veracruz this
afternoon. Gales will continue through Wed morning. Rough to very
rough seas of up to 15 ft will accompany the gale force winds.
Winds and seas will subside late Wed into Thu as high pressure
settles in.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale
Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is draped across central Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 07N27W to 07N50W. A few showers are seen near the
boundary.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
southwestern Gulf.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a strong ridge
over New England. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are evident
in the eastern Gulf, especially east of a line from Pinar del Rio,
Cuba, to Alabama. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft, with the
highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. Slight to gentle
southerly winds and 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front stretches from southeastern Louisiana
to south of Tampico, Mexico. The front will extend from the
western Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche tonight, with
gale force winds developing off Veracruz this afternoon through
tonight with rough to very rough seas. Strong to severe
thunderstorms, with locally high winds and seas, will be along and
just ahead of the cold front today for areas N of 28N. Strong
winds will follow the front across most of the Gulf through Wed
night. The front will then move across the far SE Gulf into the
eastern Bay of Campeche by Wed night. Winds and seas will subside
into Thu as the front stalls across the SE Gulf and high pressure
settles in.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low pressure (Invest 99L) is located in the south-central
Caribbean Sea, off the Guajira peninsula of Colombia. A surface
trough extends to the northeast toward the US Virgin Islands,
while the eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches the low pressure
from the coast of Costa Rica. Recent satellite images show only a
few weak showers near the low pressure and the surface trough. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NE
winds north of the low pressure and surface trough, especially
east of 73W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Invest 99L has a low
chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours. For more
details, please visit hurricanes.gov

Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 3-5 ft are
present in the Windward Passage and the Lee of Cuba. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central Caribbean Sea are associated with a small area of low
pressure. Nearby dry air is forecast to prevent additional
significant development of the system as it begins to drift slowly
westward during the next couple of days. This system has a low
chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Meanwhile,
high pressure building toward the Greater Antilles will cause
fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and just S of
Hispaniola today through Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will be
moderate or less into late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section details on a Gale
Warning.

A 1037 mb high pressure system over New England extends southward
into the SW North Atlantic. A dry airmass dominates the region,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the cold front mentioned in the
Special Features section sustain fresh to locally strong E-SE
winds, especially west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft.

Farther east, a dissipating stationary front stretches from 31N24W
to 21N36W to 23N46W. A few showers are noted near this boundary.
Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are evident
north of the front, with the highest seas occurring near 31N46W.
Moderate to locally strong southerly winds are seen on latest
satellite-derived wind data east of 24W and north of 24N. Wave
heights in this region are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure is developing near
35N51W with a cold front extending SW to the Anegada Passage. Gale
force winds are ongoing west of the low and front. As the low
tracks SE through Wed night, gale force winds will continue in the
forecast waters through Wed afternoon along with a broad area of
strong winds on both sides of the front N of 23N and E of 65W.
High seas over 20 ft will accompany the strong to gale- force
winds. As this low moves over warmer sea surface temperatures
during the next few days, environmental conditions appear
conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical
characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the
latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward
followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend. This system has
a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance in 7
days. Regardless of development, northerly swell will lead to seas
of 12 ft or greater N of 20N and E of 65W into late week. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore northern
Florida today into tonight in advance of the next cold front that
will push off the Florida coast by Wed.

$$
Delgado
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