[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
A modest cold front extends southwestward from a 1005 mb low
pressure just southeast of Bermuda near 31.5N64W to the southeast
Bahamas. A tight pressure gradient between these features and a
1031 mb North Atlantic High is producing near-gale to gale-force
southerly winds north of 28N between 59W and 62W. Seas in this
area range from 10 to 13 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force
E of the front tonight. As the low moves farther northeastward
overnight, these winds and seas should subside below gale force
and 12 ft respectively by early Mon morning. A large dome of high
pressure is going to exist the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast Mon
evening. This will cause northerly winds behind the front, north
of 27N between 30W and 62W to reach gale force from late Mon
night through Tue evening. Seas will also build and reach 15 to 20
ft in this area.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late Mon
night, then push southeastward and reach from southern
Mississippi/Alabama to near Veracruz, Mexico on Tue morning.
Northerly winds behind this front will reach near-gale to gale-
force across the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the
western Bay of Campeche by late Tue morning. Seas in both areas
will peak between 12 and 15 ft. Once the front has moved farther
southeastward on Wed, both winds and seas should gradually
subside.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest Offshore Water
Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches westward from a 1010 mb low located
northeast of Dakar, Senegal to southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
at 15N20W. Widely scattered showers are seen near the trough from
14N to 18N between the Senegal-Mauritania coast and Cabo Verde
Islands. Farther south, an ITCZ curves westward from 08N18W
across 04N30W to 08N42W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is flaring up from 04N to 12N between the Guinea-
Liberia coast and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the rest of the ITCZ from 02N to 10N E of 19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Warning.

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high
at the Florida Big Bend area to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen across the
western Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present at the northeastern
and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE to S winds and
seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, fresh southerly winds across the western Gulf with
locally strong offshore Veracruz are expected tonight and Mon.
The next cold is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Mon
night. This front will reach from southeastern Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning, and from northern Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. It will cause strong to
near-gale winds and rough seas at the northwestern Gulf by Tue
morning, then spread southward through Wed. Winds at the west-
central and southwestern Gulf will reach gale force.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough runs northeastward from a 1008 mb low southwest
of Jamaica near 15N79W across eastern Cuba to the Great Bahama
Bank. Widely scattered showers are evident over the northwestern
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Another surface trough
stretches northeastward from a second 1008 mb low north of
Barranquilla, Colombia across Hispaniola to near the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Convergent southerly winds are combining with
divergent flow aloft to generate scattered heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 14N to the Mona Passage between 67W
and 70W.

Moderate with locally fresh W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are present offshore the Nicaragua coast and north of
Barranquilla, Colombia. Moderate to fresh ESE to SSE winds and 4
to 6 ft seas dominate the eastern basin, including the Mona
Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
are found at the northwestern and west-central basin. Light to
gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms related to the
aforementioned lows and surface trough will persist through
midweek as these features drift slowly westward. High pressure
building toward the Greater Antilles Tue into Wed will lead to
fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and just
south of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
Gale Warnings at the western and central Atlantic waters.

Convergent southerly winds east of the cold front mentioned in
the Special Features section are coupling with strong divergent
winds aloft to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection north of 19N between 59W and 65W. A cold front curves
southwestward from east of the Azores across 31N22W to 24N37W,
then continues northwestward as a stationary front to 27N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 80 nm
southeast of the cold front. Widely scattered showers and present
up to 60 nm along either side of the stationary front. A surface
trough associated with a land-breeze front is causing widely
scattered showers just offshore from the east coast of Florida.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the ongoing Gale Warning area, fresh to strong S to SSW
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found southeast of the cold front
from 22N to 28N between 59W and 67W. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted west of the front north of
25N. Gentle to moderate SE to SW to NW winds with seas of 6 to 8
ft are evident from 19N to 22N between 59W and the Bahamas. For
the central Atlantic north of 08N, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to E to SE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate N swell
are found between 25W and the Lesser Antilles/59W. Near the Canary
and Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle winds and seas at 5 to 7
ft in moderate NW swell dominate north of 10N between the Africa
coast and 25W. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly
and monsoonal winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the 1005 mb low pressure has moved
north of the area to near Bermuda, and a trailing cold front
extends from near 31N67W to the SE Bahamas. Strong to gale-force
southerly winds east of the front will persist overnight, before
diminishing some on Mon as the low moves farther north of the
area. As the cold front progresses eastward through midweek,
strong N winds will develop behind it, with gales forming by Mon
night N of 27N. These gales are likely to last through at least
Tue night, gradually spreading east with time behind the cold
front.

$$

Chan
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