[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure system is
located north of the central Bahamas near 29N73W. Tight gradient
between this system and a large 1034 mb North Atlantic High is
producing near-gale to gale-force southerly winds north of 27N
between 60W and 65W. Seas in this area range from 12 to 15 ft.
These conditions are expected to persist today. As the low moves
northeastward into the north Atlantic this afternoon and evening,
both winds and seas should gradually subside. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest
Offshore Water Forecast west of 55W at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Significant North Swell in the Central Atlantic: Residual large
northerly swell generated by an earlier storm over the north
Atlantic will maintain 11 to 12 ft seas north of 23N between 39W
and 51W. Fresh mainly E winds are also found in this area. This
swell will decay today, which should allow seas to drop below 11
ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from Senegal and extends
southwest to 08N19W. An ITCZ then continues from 08N19W across
06N30W to 04N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of
the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between the Sierra Leone-
Liberia coast and along the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 22W and
38W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea, south of 12N near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from near Clearwater, Florida, to near
25N91W, where it becomes stationary and continues to the mouth of
the Rio Grande. A weak surface trough is sinking southward through
the northern Bay of Campeche. Convection associated with both
features has dissipated overnight. Mainly light winds encompass
the central and western Gulf, with gentle NE winds in the east.
Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft, except some 4 ft seas are present in
and near the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the cold front and trough will dissipate today.
High pressure will build in its wake, with mainly gentle N winds
over the basin today becoming E by tonight. Southerly winds will
form Mon and increase to fresh in the western Gulf. The next cold
front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, with gales expected
to develop over the west-central and SW Gulf Tue through Wed.
Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft over the SW Gulf by Tue
night into Wed morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough from the SW Caribbean Sea to the eastern tip of
Cuba is helping to focus numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection within about 120 nm E and W of its axis. Locally heavy
rainfall is impacting portions of Hispaniola in association with
this trough. Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low pressure is centered near
17N91W, with a surface trough extending W from it to the Yucatan
coast. Convection associated with these weakening features has
diminished overnight.

Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail in the eastern Caribbean, with
light to gentle winds impacting much of the central and western
basin. However, a zone of fresh to locally strong NW winds are
present near the coast of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua and
fresh to locally strong SW winds are occurring offshore Colombia.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft where winds are moderate or greater, with 3 to
5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America and a low
pressure over the NW Caribbean supports and area of fresh to
locally strong NW winds offshore eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua
that will diminish this morning. A surface trough will remain
over the central Caribbean into Tue night. A weak low could
develop along the trough axis. Ahead of this trough, fresh to
locally strong SW winds are expected today offshore Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
gales in the western Atlantic and large north swell in the
central Atlantic.

A broad surface trough extends from Bermuda to the Turks and
Caicos Islands to the eastern tip of Cuba. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection in association with this trough extends
from Bermuda to the Antilles between 60W and 70W. Strong to gale
force SW winds are occurring E of this trough axis N of 25N,
extending E to 60W. To the west, another surface trough extends
from a 1003 mb low pressure center near 29N73W to central Cuba.
Fresh NE winds are ongoing to the NW of this trough and low, with
scattered moderate convection NE of the center of this low, N of
28N between 69W and 73W.

Farther E, a cold front extends from 32N26W to 25N34W, where it
becomes stationary and continues to 25N48W. Fresh E wind dominate
areas N of this boundary, with a corridor of scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm SE of the cold frontal portion of the
boundary. For the remainder of the waters of the central
Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades prevail, with eastern Atlantic
waters dominated by mainly gentle NE winds.

E of 70W, a very expansive area of northerly swell translates to
seas of 8 to 11 ft, with 4 to 7 ft seas over open waters to the W
of 70W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low NE of the Bahamas will move N
of area today, with the trough evolving into a cold front. As the
low moves N of the area, S winds ahead of the front will gradually
diminish, but fresh NW to N winds will develop NW of the cold
front.

$$
Konarik
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