[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding for eastern Cuba and Hispaniola: The
remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two have emerged
in the Atlantic out of the Windward Passage early this morning,
and these remnants will race NE along the frontal boundary into
early next week. However, numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection remains over a broad area from 14.5N to 26N between
63W and 74W. A trailing surface trough will extend through the
central Caribbean into Monday. Heavy rainfall from this
convection is likely to produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides in hilly terrain. More localized heavy rainfall may
lead to urban flooding across portions of the Turks and Caicos,
and the SE Bahamas.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Significant North Swell in the Central Atlantic: Large north
swell generated by an earlier storm at the north Atlantic has
reached 18N in the central Atlantic between about 28W and 53W.
Seas of 10 to 13 ft are noted north of 18N between 35W and 55W.
This swell will gradually decay this weekend, with seas falling
below 12 ft by Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml latest Offshore Water
Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau
coast then reaches southwestward to 09N17.5W. An ITCZ continues
from 09N17.5W across 07N29W to 05N45.5W. Scattered moderate
convection is present along the Monsoon Trough from 02.5N to 10N
between the Sierra Leone coast and 19W and between 23W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from west of New Orleans, Louisiana to
South Padre Island, Texas. However, no significant convection is
associated with this front. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1019 mb
centered over eastern Mexico is building eastward. Gentle to
moderate N to NW winds dominate the basin. Seas are 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf
waters producing gentle to moderate N winds today, then E and SE
winds Sun. Southerly return flow will increase over the western
Gulf Sun night ahead of the next cold front which will move off
the Texas coast Mon night into Tue. Gale conditions are likely
in the wake of the front over the west-central and SW parts of
the Gulf Tue through Wed with seas forecast to build to 14 to 16
ft.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details the
heavy rain and flooding potential over Hispaniola and E Cuba.

A weak low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 19.5N85W and is
producing no convection. The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon
Trough extends to the SW Caribbean and is producing a cluster of
moderate convection. Fresh NW winds prevail to the W of the
aforementioned surface trough, with fresh SE winds in the
eastern Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the
NW basin.

For the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
have moved N of the region through the Windward Passage early
this morning, and will accelerate farther away from the area
today. A trailing surface trough will extend through the central
Caribbean into Monday. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds
are expected W of the trough and mainly offshore Nicaragua
through tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
gales and large north swell in the western and central Atlantic.

Outside the areas mentioned in the Special Features section:
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the NE
Florida coast in association with a weak low pressure located
near 30N77W with a frontal trough extending to western Cuba. No
significant convection is elsewhere, but a stationary front
extends from 31N29W to 31N62W. North of the frontal boundary,
fresh to strong mainly NE winds dominate. To the south, mainly
moderate trades prevail. West of 73W, mainly moderate to fresh
winds prevail with fairly erratic directions due to various
subtle features over the region. Seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate the
waters north of a line from 31N21W to 12.5N60W, with 4 to 7 ft
seas to the south. Except to the lower seas area SW of the
Bahamas, where 2 to 4 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned low will move N of
area today with fresh NW to N winds behind the aforementioned
frontal trough, and fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the
trough. The remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
have emerged in the Atlantic out of the Windward Passage early
this morning, and these remnants will race NE along the frontal
boundary into early next week.

$$
KRV
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