[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 180239
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

The broad disturbance has failed to become better organized today.
The associated convection remains displaced well to the east of the
surface trough axis by strong southwesterly shear. The earlier
aircraft reconnaissance data showed the disturbance was only
producing peak winds of 25-30 kt. Given its lack of a well-defined
surface center, poor convective organization, and the continued
hostile environmental conditions it faces, this system is no longer
expected to become a tropical cyclone. Additionally, the risk of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land has greatly diminished,
and all tropical storm watches have been discontinued. Therefore,
this will be the final NHC advisory on this system.

The remnants of this disturbance are expected to accelerate
northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough and merge with a frontal
system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this weekend.
Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected, there is high
confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a serious
threat across southeastern Cuba and Hispaniola through Sunday.
Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts
of 14 inches, are expected across portions of these areas, which is
likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from this disturbance will impact portions of
southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This
rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain. Lighter amounts across Jamaica, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to
flash flooding in urban areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 20.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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