[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT32 KNHC 172346
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
700 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

...DISTURBANCE UNLIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STILL A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ACROSS JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 77.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for
eastern Cuba. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
19.4 North, longitude 77.1 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and an acceleration toward the
northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track,
the system is expected to move across southeastern Cuba tonight and
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Saturday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone is
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low ...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas
of heavy rain, across Haiti through tonight.

RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and
southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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