[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT32 KNHC 170837
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA,
EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.3 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue with increasing forward speed through the weekend.  On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,
southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains
are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
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