[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 162047
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES, SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of Haiti.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las
Tunas.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.2 North, longitude 81.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northeastward motion is
expected to begin tonight, with an increase in forward speed into
the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba
early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,
southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. These
rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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