[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 26N79W, off the coast of
SE Florida. A warm front connects to the low pressure center,
and it continues to 25N75W. A stationary front continues from
the 1006 mb low pressure center, to a 25N84W SE Gulf of Mexico
triple point. An occluded front curves toward the 1006 mb low
pressure center. A cold front extends from the triple point to
17N87W just to the north of the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward from
55W westward. This feature is not expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone. Gusty winds and heavy rains are possible still
in parts of the east coast of Florida, and in the Bahamas, during
the next day or so. The low pressure center is forecast to be
moving toward the NE, into the SW Atlantic Ocean. Expect rough
seas, and winds to range from gale-force to near storm-force or
storm-force, for the next 24 hours or so, from 25N to 29N between
74W and 80W. Elsewhere: expect 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 24N to 31N between
61W and 80W. The remainder of the area: winds 20 knots or less,
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet in NE swell, from
22N to 31N between 56W and 73W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...INVEST-98L in the Caribbean Sea...

A 1005 mb low pressure center is about 100 nm to the NE of NE
Nicaragua. A surface trough extends northward from the low
pressure center to NW Cuba. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is between 70W and 84W. The environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for some more development of
this system. It is likely for a tropical depression to form
during the next day or two. The system is forecast to move
northeastward, in the direction of Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern
Cuba. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is enroute in
order to investigate the system. This system is expected to
produce heavy rains which are likely to result in flash flooding
and mudslides in parts of the Greater Antilles, particularly in
Jamaica and in Hispaniola, through this weekend. Anyone who has
interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, should
continue to monitor the progress of this system. It is possible
that tropical storm watches may be required for some of these
areas as early as this afternoon. The chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high.

...Significant N Swell Event...

A storm system that is well to the north of our area is generating
sea heights that range from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 28N northward
between 44W and 63W. The seas will spread eastward and southward,
reaching 26N between 35W and 55W by Friday morning. The maximum
sea heights will build to 18 feet from 30N northward, from late
today into Friday. The sea heights of 12 feet will drift mainly to
the north of the area and to the east of 40W by Saturday morning.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland, in Guinea and in Senegal.
A surface trough is in the coastal plains/the coastal waters
of Africa from Senegal northward. The ITCZ is along 06N16W 04N34W
04N30W 05N47W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
areas that are from 20N southward between 20W and 60W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 05N to 09N
between 47W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 30W and 60W. Widely scattered
to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is
from 03N to 15N between 58W and 65W, in parts of NE South America
and in some of the islands of the SE Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 26N88W. An occluded front
extends from the low pressure center to a triple point that is
near 25N84W. A stationary front continues from the triple point,
to the low pressure center that is off the coast of SE Florida,
that is with the storm-force winds. A cold front extends from the
triple point to just to the north of the Gulf of Honduras.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N
northward from 84W eastward to 80W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico. Rough to very rough seas are in parts of the north
central Gulf, and in much of the NE corner of the area. Mostly
to some rough seas are in the rest of the central two-thirds of
the area. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the eastern
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are off the middle
Texas Gulf coast. Expect strong to near gale-force NE-to-E
winds, and rough seas, from 25N northward between 84W and 92W.
Fresh winds are in the rest of the Gulf to the west of the low
pressure center. Moderate or slower winds are in the SE Gulf.

An occluded front extends from 1008 mb low pres near 26N88W to
25N84W then cold front to the western tip of Cuba. The low will
drift southward while weakening through Fri. Strong to near- gale
winds and rough seas will continue today across the NE Gulf.
Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week,
with high pressure building across the basin this upcoming
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the INVEST-98L feature, and the potential for heavy rain in the
Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas, are
in the central one-third of the area. Moderate seas cover much of
the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for the slight seas that are
within 60 nm to 120 nm from land. Fresh to moderate NE winds are
in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are
in the rest of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to the INVEST-98L
low pressure center, and then beyond Nicaragua and Costa Rica,
and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is within 90 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough that is between 80W and 84W.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 16/1200 UTC, are: 0.51 in Freeport in the Bahamas;
0.40 in Trinidad; 0.15 in Nassau in the Bahamas; and 0.10 in San
Juan in Puerto Rico, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean
through late today. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure located over the west-central Caribbean
Sea have become a little better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
development, and a tropical depression could form over the next
day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica,
Haiti, and eastern Cuba. There is a medium chance of tropical
cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of
development, this system will produce areas of heavy rain, and
locally gusty winds, over portions of the central and western
Caribbean through the end of this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning, and a
significant N swell event in the north central Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through the north central sections of the
Atlantic Ocean, toward the 1006 mb low pressure center that is
part of the SPECIAL FEATURES section, with the gale-force to
storm-force winds. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 20N northward from 30W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward
from the cold front eastward, with a surface ridge.

Fresh to moderate winds, and moderate seas, cover the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A frontal boundary extends from 23N55W to low pressure off the
coast of south Florida. Gale force winds with frequent gusts to
storm force are occurring to the east of South Florida. The low
will move NNE and move N of the area late Fri. Gale force winds
will continue with this low. Another area of low pressure will
move into the waters near the southern Bahamas Fri night, possibly
as a tropical cyclone. This low will move NNE through the
weekend, with gale force winds possible to the east of the low
center.

$$
MT/al
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