[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 161145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the west-central Caribbean Sea have become a
little better organized since yesterday.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical
depression could form over the next day or two while the low moves
northeastward toward Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba.  An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system this afternoon.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the Greater Antilles through this weekend.  Interests
in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure between southern Florida and
the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a frontal boundary.
Development of this system into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely.
However, gusty winds and heavy rains are still possible across
portions of the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas during the
next day or so while the low moves quickly northeastward over the
southwestern Atlantic.  For more information on this system,
including storm warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg
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