[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure system is
centered near 28N88W. An occluded front extends from the low over
the NE Gulf to 26N84W, where ongoing strong to near gale force
winds with gusts to gale force present north of 28N. Seas are 8 to
12 ft. A cold front extends southward from the 26N84W to the
Yucatan Channel and to the Gulf of Honduras in the NW Caribbean. A
stationary front extends SE from 26N84W to Key West, Florida. The
low will continue to move ENE through the week, gradually
dragging the fronts across the Gulf waters. Gusts to gale force
and rough seas will continue through tonight across the northern
semicircle of the low.

Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A complex low
pressure system is expected to develop along a frontal boundary
off the southeast coast of Florida Thu morning. A tight pressure
gradient between strong high pressure to the NE and the broad area
of low pressure will support strong to near-gale force winds N of
27N and E of 70W beginning Thu. Gale force ENE winds are expected
in the northern semicircle of the low, offshore central Florida
and north of the Bahamas Thu afternoon and Thu night, supporting
seas of 12-16 ft. The gales are expected to lift north of the area
along the front by Fri afternoon.

Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following
website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the gales.

Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea: A large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean is associated with a broad trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across
the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests
in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the
Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles
through the end of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas
may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.

Northerly swell event: Sea heights of 12 feet or higher will
start tonight, from 29N northward between 50W and 60W. Seas will
spread eastward and southward, reaching 26N between 35W and 55W by
Friday morning. The peak seas from 15 feet to 16 feet, will occur
between Thursday and Friday, from 30N northward. 12 ft seas will
drift mainly north of the area and east of 40W by Saturday
morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 05N11W to 03N43W. No significant convection is associated
with this feature at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force winds forecast that is related to the
1008 mb low pressure center.

West of the cold front described in the Special Features section
above, fresh to strong northerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail,
mainly west of 87W. Winds and seas are beginning to diminish in
the NW Gulf offshore Texas. Otherwise ahead of the low pressure
system, moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are in the SE Gulf
mainly near the entrance of the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the low pressure system will drift southward
while weakening. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the
end of the week, with high pressure building across the basin this
upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is analyzed from NE Nicaragua to northern
Yucatan Peninsula. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical
moisture are helping to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the western Caribbean, mainly W of 77W.
Meanwhile, a dry airmass is suppressing deep convection in the
remainder of the basin.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds occurring off northern Colombia and the
Gulf of Venezuela. These winds sustain seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted in the
eastern Caribbean. In the NW and extreme SW Caribbean, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean through late Wed. A broad area of low pressure
is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean in the next
few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form toward the end of this week while the system begins moving
northeastward across the western and central portions of the
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system has the
potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean
coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end
of this week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
development in the next 7 days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale-Force
Wind Warning and a northerly swell event beginning this evening.

A frontal boundary extends from 31N45W to the central Bahamas to
the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail N of the
front and east of 65W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the
boundary to 40W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the region of strong
winds. West of 65W, Fresh to strong E winds prevail north of the
front where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Winds may be gusting to near
gale force between the Bahamas and SE Florida. A large area of
moderate convection is noted over this region.

Elsewhere, broad surface anticyclonic wind flow dominates the
basin supporting fresh to moderate winds, and moderate seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the
front N of the area. This will support an area of strong to near-
gale winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W beginning
tonight. A broad area of low pressure may develop over the waters
W of 75W by the end of the week, with the strong to near- gale
force winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and W of 70W toward
the end of the week.

$$
Mora
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