[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low pressure system is
centered near 27N94W. A stationary front extends eastward from
the low to southern Florida, while a cold front extends southward
from the low to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed north of 25N and between
87W and 95W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
strong to gale-force winds to the NW of the low. Strong to near
gale-force winds are present behind the cold front in the western
Gulf and north of the stationary front in the northern Gulf. Seas
in these waters are 8-12 ft. Gale force winds and rough seas are
expected through Tue night across the northern semicircle of the
low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the
week as the low moves eastward. Please, read the High Seas
Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

Potential for heavy rainfall in the Caribbean Sea: A broad area of
low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean
in the next few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for additional development of this system thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the
system begins moving northeastward across the western and central
portions of the Caribbean. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, and the
Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of
Central America and the Greater Antilles towards the latter
portions of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas may
lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. There is a high
chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 06N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N16W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 14N and between 31W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on the Gale
Warning currently in effect for the northern gulf waters.

The remainder of the Gulf experiences fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are found in the SE Gulf waters. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gale low will continue to move ENE through
the week, dragging the frontal boundary across the Gulf waters.
Gale force winds and rough seas are expected through Wed across
the northern semicircle of the low. Marine conditions are expected
to improve by the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on the
potential heavy rainfall event expected for parts of Central
America and the Greater Antilles.

A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Honduras and NE
Nicaragua. Along with plenty of tropical moisture and divergence
aloft, the trough is inducing numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly from 12N to 22N and west of 78W. The rest
of the Caribbean is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the
development of deep convection.

The pressure gradient between high pressures N of the area and
lower pressures across northern South America support fresh to
strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. These winds
are sustaining wave heights of 6-9 ft, with the highest seas
occurring off northern Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass also show fresh to strong easterly winds in the eastern
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean through late Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 28N61W, then becomes
stationary to 26N80W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are found
behind the front, along with seas of 6-9 ft. The highest seas are
located north of the Bahamas. Fresh SW winds and seas of 6-8 ft
are present north of 30N and between 43W and the aforementioned
front.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb
high pressure system near Madeira Island. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N, along with
wave heights in the range of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the fronts will continue drifting E
while weakening. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front N of the area beginning on Wed. This will support an area of
strong to near-gale winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W
beginning on Wed. A broad area of low pressure will develop over
the waters W of 70W the second half of the week, with the strong
to near-gale force winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of
70W toward the end of the week.

$$
ERA
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