[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure system is
centered near 26N94W. A stationary front extends eastward from
the low to southern Florida, while a cold front extends southward
from the low to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed north of 25N and between
88W and 95W, and also east of the cold front. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force winds
to the north and west of the low. Strong to near gale-force winds
are also present behind the cold front in the western Gulf and
north of the stationary front in the northern Gulf. Seas in these
waters are 7-11 ft. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected
through Tue night across the northern semicircle of the low.
Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week
as the low moves generally eastward. Please, read the High Seas
Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

Potential for heavy rainfall in the Caribbean Sea: A broad area of
low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea in the next few days. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for additional development of this system thereafter,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system begins moving northeastward across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica,
Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, this system has the
potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean
coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles towards the
latter portions of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas
may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N15W to 06N35W and to 06N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 12N and between 25W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on gale
conditions impacting portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The remainder of the Gulf experiences fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are found in the SE Gulf waters. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from 26N81W to low pres
near 27N94W. A cold front extends from the low to 21N95W. The low
will move ENE through the week, dragging the frontal boundary
across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds and rough seas are
expected through Tue night across the northern semicircle of the
low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on the
potential heavy rainfall event expected for parts of Central
America and the Greater Antilles.

A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Honduras and NE
Nicaragua. Along with plenty of tropical moisture and divergence
aloft, the trough is inducing numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly from 12N to 18N and west of 77W. A few
showers are also noted off eastern Yucatan. The rest of the
Caribbean Sea is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the
development of deep convection.

The pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure system off
the Carolinas and lower pressures across northern South America
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central
Caribbean. These winds are sustaining wave heights of 6-9 ft, with
the highest seas occurring off northern Colombia. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass also show fresh to locally strong
easterly winds in the eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are
4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through midweek. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the next
few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
additional development of this system thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week while the system
moves northeastward across the western and central portions of
the Caribbean. Regardless of development, this system has the
potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean
coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles towards the
latter portions of this week. There is a high chance of tropical
cyclone development in the next 7 days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N52W to the NW Bahamas and SE
Florida. Satellite imagery depict a few showers near the frontal
boundary. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds are found
behind the front, along with seas of 6-9 ft. The highest seas are
located north of the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are present north of 28N and between 40W and the
aforementioned front.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb
high pressure system near Madeira Island. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N, along with
wave heights in the range of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N53W
to 26N80W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail NW of the front with
seas to 10 ft. High pressure will build in the wake of the front N
of the area by the middle of the week. This will support an area
of strong to near-gale winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W
the middle of the week. A trough will develop over the waters W
of 70W the second half of the week, with the strong to near-gale
force winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward
the end of the week.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net