[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front is in South Florida along 26N. The front
becomes stationary in the Gulf of Mexico along 26N, to
a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 25N94W. The
stationary front continues from the low pressure center,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico along
94W/95W, and then northwestward to 23N102W. Expect
NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights that range
from 8 feet to 9 feet, from 26N to 28N between 95W and 96W.
Expect strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and
8 foot seas, elsewhere from 26N to 30N between 91W and 97W.
Expect also fresh to strong NW winds, and sea heights that
range from 8 feet to 9 feet, from 19N to 25N between 95W
and 98W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz
in Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 300 nm of the low pressure center in the NE quadrant.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate spans the rest of
the area. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2,
at the following website,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland, in Sierra Leone. A surface
trough is along 15W/16W from 06N to 10N. The ITCZ is along
07N17W 07N26W 08N32W. A second surface trough is along
32W/34W from 11N southward. The ITCZ continues along 07N35W
05N41W 03N43W 03N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 08N from 18W
eastward, and from 03N to 14N between 24W and 45W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder
of the area that is from 15N southward from 56W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force winds forecast that is related to the
1015 mb 25N94W low pressure center.

Slight to moderate seas, and fresh NE winds, are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the 25N94W low
pressure center.

A stationary front extends from 26N82W to low pres near
25N94W to 18.5N94.5W. The low will move ENE, dragging a
frontal boundary across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds
and rough seas are expected through Tue across the northern
semicircle of the low. The pressure gradient between the
low and a strengthening ridge over the E United States will
support fresh to strong E winds and building seas over the
E Gulf through the middle of the week. Marine conditions
are expected to improve by the second half of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 70W, from the Dominican
Republic southward. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form in the SW Caribbean Sea in a few days.
Gradual development is possible. It is possible that
a tropical depression may form late this week. The
weather system is forecast to move toward the NE,
through the western and central sections of the
Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and rough seas, are in the
central one-third of the area. Moderate to rough seas cover
much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for the slight
seas that are within 60 nm to 120 nm from land. Fresh to
moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the rest of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, beyond
Panama and southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
within 270 nm to the west and the southwest of the line
10N76W 17N80W 17N85W.  widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 13/1200 UTC, are: 2.69 in Bermuda, and 0.17
in Curacao, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through midweek. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few
days. Gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week while the system begins moving northeastward across
the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
There is currently a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development in the next 7 days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 33N41W 1016 mb low pressure center,
to a 32N58W 1012 mb low pressure center, to 29N70W, through the
NW Bahamas, to South Florida along 26N. One surface trough is
about 220 nm to the SE of the frontal boundary between 46W and
57W. A second surface trough is about 300 nm to the southeast
of the frontal boundary between 32W and 50W. A third surface
trough curves through the Windward Passage, through the
SE Bahamas, to 26N68W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 20N northward from 30W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward
from 30W eastward, with a surface ridge. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic
Ocean from 13N to 23N between 33W and the Windward Passage.

Moderate seas cover the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are within 240 nm of the 1012 mb low
pressure center in the southern quadrant. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are from the cold front northward between
63W and 73W. Mostly moderate, to some fresh NE winds,
are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 27N80W. The front will
continue moving eastward with fresh to strong winds NW of the
front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front
N of the area by the middle of the week. This will support
fresh to strong winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W
the middle of the week, with these winds shifting to the
waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward the end of the week.

$$
mt/al
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net