[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from near
Tampa Bay, FL to the north-central Gulf near 27N90W to the central
Bay of Campeche. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop
along the front today. The low will move eastward over the northern
waters, dragging the stationary portion of the front eastward as
a cold front. The pressure gradient between the low and high
pressure over the southern United States will support frequent
gusts to gale force over the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters
of the Houston/Galveston area through Monday night. Mariners
should alter plans to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds are occurring in the wake of the
front with seas of 8 to 10 ft. As the low moves into the north-
central Gulf Tue, conditions in the NW Gulf will gradually
improve.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near Conakry and continues westward to near 08N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N17W to 05N40W to 07N56W. A surface trough is
analyzed within the ITCZ and runs from 13N32W to 05N33W. A recent
scatterometer pass indicates the wind shift associated with the
trough axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
on either side of the trough covering the waters from 03N to 11N
between 20W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the NW Gulf including the coastal
waters of the Houston/Galveston area. Please, see the Special
Features section above for more.

The stationary front is the main feature across the Gulf waters.
Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers is noted across much
the Gulf in association with the front. A ridge is building across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico in the
wake of the front. The remainder of the basin is experiencing
moderate to locally strong NE to E winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, a low pressure will
develop today along the stationary front over the NW waters. The
low will move eastward over the northern waters, dragging the
stationary portion of the front eastward as a cold front. The low
pressure center will move E of the area by the end of the week.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail west of the front
along the coast of Mexico through the early part of the week. The
pressure gradient between the area of low pressure and a strengthening
ridge over the E United States will support fresh to strong E winds
and building seas over the E Gulf through the middle of the week.
Marine conditions are expected to improve the second half of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is noted just W of the Lesser Antilles, along 62W.
This system continues to generate some shower activity. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across much of the SW Caribbean, more
concentrated near Cabo Gracias a Dios Nicaragua. This convective
activity covers the waters from 13N to 17N between 80W and 86W.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are observed per scatterometer
data in the same area. A 1007 mb low pressure is seen over the SW
Caribbean, along the eastward extension of the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough near 11.5N80.5W.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin
and the Colombian/Panamanian low supports fresh to strong trade
winds across the east and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds prevail in the NW and SW portions of Caribbean except S
of the monsoon trough where mainly light to gentle winds are
noted. Seas are 7 to 10 ft within the strongest winds. In the NW
part of the basin, seas are 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean over the next
few days. The area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward
early this week, bringing a slight decrease in areal coverage of
the strong winds through the week.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is likely to form
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form late this week while the system drifts northeastward
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to the central Florida coast. A
few showers are noted along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong
northerly winds follow the front, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. High
pressure is building behind the front. A surface trough is ahead
of the front and extends from 27N71W to 22N73W. Light to gentle
winds are seen on either side of the trough axis. Winds increase
farther south just off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage where satellite derived wind data show fresh to
locally strong E winds. Another cold front enters the forecast
region near 31N48W, then continues westward to near 30N60W. A
stationary front stretches from this point to a 1015 mb low
pressure located N of area near 33N70W. A ridge dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Light to gentle winds
are under the influence of the ridge. Mainly moderate trades are
evident across the tropical Atlantic, increasing to moderate to
fresh E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft
across the Atlantic, except 3 to 5 ft N of 22N and E of the
Bahamas to about 55W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the westernmost cold front will continue
moving eastward with fresh to strong winds W of the front. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front N of the area by the
middle of the week. This will support fresh to strong winds over
the waters N of 25N and W of 70W the middle of the week, with
these winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward
the end of the week.

$$
GR
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