[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high pressure
of 1029 mb located SE of the Azores Islands and lower pressures
in NW Africa is resulting in strong to gale-force N to NE winds
in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. A
scatterometer pass captured the presence of these winds. Seas
are currently peaking near 17 ft off Morocco. Gale-force winds
are expected to continue through at least 08/0900 UTC with gusts
in Agadir, diminishing in Tarfaya soon. For more details, refer
to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the
coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues westward to
07N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N23W to 06N40W to 07N58W.
Convection is limited.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1019 mb located off the western Florida Panhandle
near 29N87W is maintaining a light to gentle anticyclonic flow
and slight seas across the Gulf region, with the exception of
moderate southerly winds over the western Gulf, mainly N of 22N
and W of 95W. patches of low level clouds persist along most of
the Mexican coast.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift east of the area
by late Wed. Meanwhile, a weak trough will form off the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move across the
southwest Gulf overnight. Looking ahead, a cold front will move
off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri, preceded by
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. By early Sat, the
front may stall from north-central Florida to weak low pressure
near south Texas, with a cold front extending from the low
pressure southward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Little change to
this pattern is expected Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong winds
and building seas will follow the front, especially over the far
west-central and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico from
Fri night to Sat night and over most of the western Gulf Sun and
Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection has diminished over the Gulf of Honduras compared with
the previous days. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are still noted over the Gulf of Honduras and parts of Belize,
Honduras and Nicaragua. Similar convective activity is also seen
over the eastern Caribbean, more concentrated over the Windward
Islands and regional waters. A surface trough is analyzed across
the area, and extends from the Mona Passage to the Gulf of
Venezuela. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Mona
Passage and parts of Puerto Rico and coastal waters. Moderate
to locally fresh trades are evident across the basin with seas
generally of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure north of the
area will be replaced by stronger high pressure on Thu before it
begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will
allow for northeast winds to increase to mostly fresh speeds in
the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola
by late Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the
central Caribbean and over the western part of the eastern
Caribbean Fri through Sun as a result from a tightening pressure
gradient between the high pressure over the Atlantic and lower
pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. These conditions will
begin to improve late on Sun, with the exception that the fresh
northeast winds in the lee of Cuba will increase to fresh to
strong speeds while expanding westward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France marine
zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

A broad upper-level trough over the western Atlantic supports a
cold front that extends from a 1008 mb low pressure situated near
32N56W southwestward to just northeast of the British Virgin
Islands. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the
front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are also ahead of the
front, mainly N of 24N while gentle to moderate W to NW winds
follow the front. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front and
stretches from the same low pressure to near the SE Bahamas
where some low level clouds are noted on satellite imagery. A
ridge dominates the western Atlantic W of 70W. This is
providing light to gentle NE winds and slight seas. Farther
east, high pressure of 1029 mb located SE of the Azores near
35N19W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters.
The pressure gradient between this feature and lower pressures
over W Africa is resulting in fresh to strong NE winds N of 15N
and E of 30W with strong to gale force winds near the coast of
Morocco. NE swell from these winds is supporting seas in excess
of 8 ft, reaching as far west as 35W. A pair of altimeter passes
between the W coast of Africa and 30W indicate seas of 8 to 11
ft. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic with seas of 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will
move east of the forecast waters Wed morning. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms are along and ahead of the front north of 20N.
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure over the western part of
the area will be replaced by stronger high pressure on Thu. The
high pressure will gradually shift eastward through the weekend.
This will allow for fresh to strong east winds to develop over
the waters south of 24N, including the approaches to the Windward
Passage through Sun. These conditions will begin to improve late
on Sun. A cold front is expected to move over the waters off
northeast Florida on Sat and stall through Sun night. Moderate to
fresh northeast winds will follow in behind the front along with
seas building to 8 or 9 ft in northeast swell.

$$
GR
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