[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1032 mb located SE of the Azores Islands and lower
pressures in NW Africa is resulting in strong to gale-force N to
NE winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya.
Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft off Morocco. Gale-force
winds are expected to continue through at least 08/0000 UTC with
severe gusts. Winds and seas will diminish late this week. For
more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed
on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the
coast of Guinea near 11N16W and continues westward to 06N20W.
The ITCZ stretches from 06N20W to 06N40W to 07N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across Liberia offshore waters and
from 05N to 12N between 32W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1021 mb high pressure located off the western Florida Panhandle
near 29N87W is maintaining light to gentle anticyclonic flow and
slight seas across the Gulf, with the exception of moderate NE to
E winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Florida Straits, and
moderate southerly return flow N of the Tampico offshore waters
and to the west of 93W.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will shift east of the area by late Wed. Meanwhile a weak trough
will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
and move across the southwest Gulf overnight. Looking ahead, a
cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf
Fri. By early Sat, the front may stall from Apalachicola, Florida
to weak low pressure off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then
southward to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds
and building seas will follow the front, especially over the far
west-central and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico from
Fri night to Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh NE winds, 4 to 6 ft seas and scattered showers
persist across the northwest Caribbean this afternoon, including
the Belize offshore waters and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas persist.

For the forecast, conditions will improve in the NW Caribbean this
evening as a surface trough along the E coast of Yucatan weakens.
High pressure north of the area will build and shift eastward
through mid week, allowing NE winds to increase in the lee of
Cuba, over the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola by late
Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the central
Caribbean Fri and Sat between the high pressure over the Atlantic,
and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Meteo-France marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya. Please, see the Special Features section for
more details.

Surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high off the coast of the
Carolinas and a 1019 mb high over the NE Gulf of Mexico covers the
SW N Atlantic waters W of 70W. This is providing light to gentle
NE winds and slight seas W of 65W. Farther east, the subtropical
ridge is anchored by 1032 mb high pressure centered SE of the
Azores. Strong to gale force NE winds persist over the eastern
Atlantic east of 25W with 10 to 17ft seas. NE swell from these
winds is supporting seas in excess of 8 ft, reaching as far west
as 45W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing between 25W
and 45W N of 12N. Between, both subtropical ridges, a lingering
surface trough extends from 31N59W SW to 23N67W. Fresh S to SW
flow is within 300 nm ahead of the trough N of 24N along with seas
of 7 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere
in the Atlantic tropical waters with seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough along with
associated showers and thunderstorms will shift east of the area
through Wed, ahead of high pressure moving eastward along 30N from
the northern Gulf to between northeast Florida and Bermuda.
Looking ahead, the high pressure will continue to move to the
northeast of region later in the week, supporting fresh to strong
E winds mainly south of 22N to include the approaches to the
Windward Passage Thu through Sat. A weak cold front may move into
the waters off northeast Florida by late Sat.

$$
Ramos

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