[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1032 mb located SE of the Azores Islands and lower
pressures in NW Africa is resulting in strong to gale-force N to
NE winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya.
Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft off Morocco. Gale-force
winds are expected to continue through at least 08/0000 UTC with
severe gusts. Winds and seas will diminish late this week. For
more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed
on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the
coast of Guinea near 11N16W and continues westward to 06N20W.
The ITCZ stretches from 06N20W to 06N40W to 07N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across Liberia offshore waters and
from 05N to 12N between 32W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1021 mb high pressure located off the western Florida Panhandle
near 29N87W is maintaining light to gentle anticyclonic flow and
slight seas across the Gulf, with the exception of moderate NE to
E winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Florida Straits, and
moderate southerly return flow N of the Tampico offshore waters
and to the west of 93W.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will shift east of the area by late Wed. Meanwhile a weak trough
will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
and move across the southwest Gulf overnight. Looking ahead, a
cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf
Fri. By early Sat, the front may stall from Apalachicola, Florida
to weak low pressure off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then
southward to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds
and building seas will follow the front, especially over the far
west-central and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico from
Fri night to Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras and plenty of tropical
moisture supports a few lingering showers off the coasts of
Honduras and Belize. Farther south, a few showers and
thunderstorms are also active off eastern Panama, along the
monsoon trough. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer
satellite data indicated moderate to fresh NE winds across the
northwest Gulf, between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and
aforementioned surface trough. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft
over the northwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to
5 ft are also possible over the far southeast Caribbean, following
a trough over the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trade winds and slight seas persist.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NE winds, 4 to 6 ft seas
and scattered showers across the northwest Caribbean will diminish today
as the trough weakens. High pressure north of the area will build
and shift eastward through mid week, allowing NE winds to
increase in the lee of Cuba, over the Windward Passage, and south
of Hispaniola by late Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
build over the central Caribbean Fri and Sat between the high
pressure over the Atlantic, and lower pressure over the southwest
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Meteo-France marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya. Please, see the Special Features section for
more details.

A broad upper trough is observed from near Bermuda to the Windward
Passage. The upper pattern is supporting a trio of surface
troughs moving eastward across the waters between the Bahamas,
the Leeward Islands and Bermuda. Associated showers and a few
thunderstorms are active north of 22N and east of 65W. Gentle
breezes persist west of 60W, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open
waters due to a component of NE swell. Farther east, the
subtropical ridge is anchored by 1030 mb high pressure centered
east of the Azores. Fresh S to SW flow is note between the
troughs and the ridge, north of 22N between 45W and 55W, with 5 to
7 ft seas. Strong to gale force NE winds persist over the eastern
Atlantic east of 30W with 10 to 15 ft seas. NE swell from these
winds in excess of 8 ft are reaching as far west as 45W. Moderate
to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere, with combined seas of 6
to 8 ft in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N between 40W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the troughs, along with associated
showers and a few thunderstorms active north of 22N and east of
65W will shift east of the area through mid week, ahead of high
pressure moving eastward along 30N from the northern Gulf to
between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, the high
pressure will continue to move to the northeast of region later in
the week, supporting fresh to strong E winds mainly south of 22N
to include the approaches to the Windward Passage Thu through Sat.
A weak cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida
by late Sat.

$$
Ramos
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