[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale-Force Wind Warning E of 35W...

The METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of gale-force winds,
for the marine zones AGADIR and TARFAYA, until 08/0000 UTC. The
surface pressure gradient, that is between strong high pressure
of 1032 mb that is just to the southeast of the Azores and
comparatively lower pressures that are in NW Africa, is resulting
in the gale-force N to NE winds. Fresh to strong NE winds in
general are from 22N northward from 30W eastward. A shear line is
along 22N16W 24N32W. Rough seas are from 14N northward from 50W.
The comparatively highest seas are from 20N northward from 30W
eastward. Please, read the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast, that
is on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to
05N30W and 06N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 03N to 12N from 53W eastward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward between 53W and
60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A 1019 mb
high pressure center is near 29N89W, just to the east of SE
Louisiana. High level clouds are from 25N northward, moving toward
the east. Fresh NE winds are within 60 nm to 75 nm of the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula between 88W and 92W. Moderate or slower
wind speeds are in the remainder of the area. Slight seas cover
the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure centered over north-central Gulf will shift east of
the area by late Wed. Meanwhile a weak trough will form off the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move across
the southwest Gulf overnight. Looking ahead, a cold front will
move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri. By early
Sat, the front may stall from Apalachicola, Florida to weak low
pressure off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then southward to the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds and building seas
will follow the front, especially over the far west- central and
southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night to Sat
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 12N81W to the east of
Nicaragua, to eastern Honduras, toward the NW corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia,
beyond the Panama/Costa Rica border, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N to 18N between 75W and 93W.

A comparatively more north-to-south oriented surface trough
extends from the NW part of the Dominican Republic to the coast of
Venezuela along 70W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is in
the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is in the eastern one-third of the area.

Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the eastern one-third of the
area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower NE winds are in the central
one-third of the area, and in the SW corner. An exception is for
fresh NE winds from 19N northward between SE Cuba and 80W.
Moderate seas are from 20N northward from 80W westward. Slight
seas span the rest of the area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals, for the period that ended at 07/0000
UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables, MIATPTPAN, are: 0.26 in Bermuda, and 0.05 in Curacao.

Moderate to fresh NE winds, 5 to 7 ft seas and scattered showers
persist across the northwest Caribbean this evening along a trough
extending across Belize and Honduras. Conditions will improve
early Tue as the trough weakens. High pressure north of the area
will build and shift eastward through mid week, allowing NE winds
to increase in the lee of Cuba, over the Windward Passage, and
south of Hispaniola by late Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas
will build over the central Caribbean Fri and Sat between the high
pressure over the Atlantic, and lower pressure over the southwest
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the METEO-FRANCE forecast for gale-force winds in the marine zones
Agadir and Tarfaya.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area that
is between 60W and the SE U.S.A. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is most of the area that is from 63W westward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 18N northward between 46W and 76W. A diffluent upper level
wind pattern is to the east of the upper level trough.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
15N to 24N between 24W and 45W. Expect enhanced clouds and
possible rainshowers in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind
flow.

A surface ridge is along 23N53W 30N44W, to the 1032 mb high
pressure center that is to the southeast of the Azores.

Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the area. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere from 60W eastward. Moderate N to NE
winds are from 70W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the area.

A trough extending from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas will
dissipate Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
along the northern portion of another trough extending from 31N57W
to near the Anegada Passage. This trough and associated weather
will shift east of the area by Wed night, ahead of high pressure
moving eastward along 30N from the northern Gulf to between
northeast Florida and Bermuda through mid week, and to the
northeast of region later in the week. Looking ahead, this pattern
will support fresh to strong E winds mainly south of 22N to
include the approaches to the Windward Passage Thu through Sat.

$$
mt/ec
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