[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A broad area of low pressure
(AL97) is centered just offshore of Nicaragua in the western
Caribbean. This disturbance is currently generating heavy rains
across portions of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 13N to 18N
between 82W and 87W, including within the Gulf of Honduras. This
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy
rains to portions of Central America through the weekend and into
early next week. Heavy rains will spread westward into Guatemala
and Belize tonight and tomorrow. Additional heavy rains are
possible in Panama and Costa Rica. This rainfall could produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides in higher terrain areas. For
additional information about this system, see forecast products
issued by your local meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
05N34W and to 08N47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The stationary front persists across the Straits of Florida and
the Yucatan Channel to Cozumel, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds
have been observed in these areas and the remainder of the SE
Gulf, with 7-9 ft seas. Scattered showers are near the frontal
boundary. A benign surface trough is in the west- central Gulf.
1022 mb high pressure over eastern Mexico and 1029 mb high
pressure over the southeast United States provide strong ridging
over the Gulf waters. NE winds are moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the strong winds and rough seas will diminish
tonight as high pressure over the region slides eastward and
weakens through the weekend and into early next week. Seas in the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will gradually subside
tonight. Relatively quite marine conditions are expected from Sun
well into next week as high pressure remains over the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about HEAVY RAINS
currently impacting Central America and the western Caribbean.

Scattered showers are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Trades are
moderate to fresh across the basin, with locally strong winds
noted near the coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 4-7 ft across the
basin, increasing to 8 ft in the Yucatan Channel due to strong
winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from the western
tip of Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will weaken through tonight.
Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with
the front and its remnants will prevail in the far northwestern
Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front extends from 31N69W to 1017 mb low pressure centered
near 28N75W. A stationary front continues from the low pressure
across the Straits of Florida to Cozumel, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds
have been observed in the Straits of Florida with 5-7 ft seas.
Seas are 8-10 ft from 26N to 31N between 67W and 76W. With the
exception of the Straits of Florida, winds near the frontal
boundaries are light to gentle. A surface trough parallel to the
Southeast US Coast enters TAFB Waters at 31N78W and continues to
28N80W. Fresh to strong N winds are north and west of this surface
trough, with seas building to 8-11 ft south of 31N.

In the Eastern Atlantic east of 25W, seas are 8-11 ft in N swell,
with 11-13 ft seas northeast of the Canary Islands.

Surface troughs along 57W, from 12N to 16N and along 48W, from 15N
to 22N, located beneath a broad and elongated upper level low are
producing showers and tstorms from 13N to 24N between 42W and 58W. Scatterometer
data this morning depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
Atlantic, increasing to locally fresh speeds south of 20N. Seas
are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast, the front will weaken to a trough tonight over
the northern Bahamas offshore waters. Fresh to strong northeast
winds and high seas prevail across the waters offshore of NE
Florida and Georgia where seas are interacting with the
Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas N of the front begin to diminish
this evening through tonight. Relatively weak high pressure will
settle in over the region well into next week.

$$
Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net