[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front has moved away from the gulf waters and it currently
extends across the W Caribbean. Behind the front, strong to near
gale NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected in
the Straits of Florida through Fri morning. Seas to 10 ft are
currently prevailing, and will increase to 12-14 ft today and
continue through Fri.

...Atlantic Gale Wind Warning...

A strong cold front extends from 31N66W to 22.5N79W. Expect
strong to gale-force winds and rough seas behind the front from
23N northward between 70W and 81W, including in the Atlantic
exposures. Gusts to gale-force are forecast from 75W westward.
Expect these conditions through the next 24 hours.

Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about
these warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
ITCZ between 25W-30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force winds that are associated with the cold front that
has been moving through Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours.

High pressure ridge prevails across the basin. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail N of 22N, and strong to near gale winds are noted S
of 22N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail N of 27N, while 8-11 ft seas
prevail S of 27N, except for 12-20 ft seas over the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, winds/seas are forecast to continue to diminish
today across most of the basin. Fresh to strong northeast winds
and rough seas will continue to affect the southeastern Gulf
through Fri before diminishing Sat. Frequent gusts to gale force
are expected across the Straits of Florida through early Fri.
Conditions further improve Sun into early next week as high
pressure settles over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Invest AL97 is analyzed over the central Caribbean near 15N74W,
1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within the low.
A strong cold front extends from central Cuba southwestward to
Belize. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the
western half of the basin W of 74W. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and seas to 10 ft are found in the NW Caribbean, mainly
within 200 nm of the Yucatan Channel. Moderate easterly trade
winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the disorganized AL97 will prevail over the
central Caribbean today. Environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for some development of this disturbance
over the next couple of days before it moves inland over Central
America by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America late this week and into the weekend. The strong cold
front will continue moving E across the western Caribbean today,
then becoming stationary and dissipating by Sat. Strong to near
gale force northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front
through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected across
the central Caribbean into Fri due to the pressure gradient
between AL97 and strong high pressure north of the area. Winds/seas
conditions will diminish further starting late Sat and into next
week as high pressure north of the area weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale-force warning currently in effect for the W Atlantic.

E of the front described above, a pre-frontal trough extends from
31N63W to 23N71W with scattered showers. To the E, a 1014 mb low
is centered near 25N57W. S of the low, a surface trough extends
from 16N58W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along this trough. To the NE, a pair of surface troughs are
enhancing convection from 13N-21N between 30W-47W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin.

Moderate to rough seas are from 26N northward between 28W-42W.
Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh
winds cover most of the area.

For the forecast, the front will continue moving SE today
then stalling on Fri. The front is expected to dissipate on Sat,
with the remnant trough drifting back to the W over the waters
north of the Bahamas. Strong winds and rough seas, with some of
the zones experiencing frequent gusts to gale force, are expected
behind the front through tonight. Marine conditions will
significantly improve starting late Sat and into next week as high
pressure over the region weakens.

$$
ERA
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