[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Naples,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds of 40 kt
and very rough seas of 20 to 23 ft are noted in the wake of the
front over the SW Gulf. The front will move southeast of the basin
this morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force
over the Bay of Campeche by tonight. Winds and seas will also
begin to diminish across the NW Gulf today, and across much of the
basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
will continue to affect the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida
through Fri before diminishing Sat.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is currently moving
across the western Atlantic, just E of N Florida. The front will
reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, then
gradually move back westward to the NW Bahamas by Fri morning,
before dissipating on Sat. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to
gale force, and rough seas are expected behind the front through
Fri. Seas are expected to build to 12-14 ft just N and E of the
Bahamas on Thu.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of Guinea
Bissau then continues westward to near 09N25W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N25W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted over the E Atlantic from the Equator to 15N
between 10W and 35W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf waters
followed by strong gale force winds and very rough seas. Please,
see the Special Features section for more details.

A wide band of mainly low clouds with scattered light to moderate
showers is associated with the front. This cloudiness is also
banked up along the E slope of the Sierra Madre Mountains in
Mexico. Veracruz is reporting drizzle. Dry air is already entering
the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, weather conditions across the Gulf region remain
associated with the passage of a strong cold front, forecast to
exit the basin this morning. Please, refer to the the Special Features
section for more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with a trough of low pressure (AL97) located over the central
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
slightly more conducive for development in a couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form during the latter part of this
week while moving generally westward over the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America late this week and into the weekend. Currently, this
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48
hours, and a medium chance through 7 days.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed over parts of
Jamaica, across the waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, in
the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Gonave. This convective
activity is the result of a surface trough combined with upper
level diffluence. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds dominate most
of the NW and central Caribbean with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range.
Moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are occurring in the
eastern Caribbean. Fresh N winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted
in the Yucatan Channel due to an approaching strong cold front.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected across
the basin through this morning. At that time, a strong cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean, extend from E Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Thu morning, then drift westward Fri morning, before
dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale NE winds and rough seas
will follow the front through Fri night before diminishing on Sat.
Fresh to strong winds are also expected across the central Caribbean
late Thu into Fri due to the pressure gradient between AL97 and
strong high pressure N of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak area of low pressure is located near 29N72W. No significant
convection is depicted in association with this low. A surface
trough extends from the low southward across to the central
Bahamas into eastern Cuba. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N northward to beyond
Bermuda between 65W and 75W.

High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward
across the waters between 57W and 65W. Another 1011 mb low pressure
system is near 24N53W. To the NE, fresh NE winds, with seas 8 to
10 ft are occurring N of 26N between 30W and 50W, associated with
a surface trough. Fresh N winds are near the coasts of southern
Western Sahara and Mauritania. Elsewhere, south of 26N and E of
60W, mainly light to gentle winds are seen based on satellite
derived wind data. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the Atlantic
forecast waters. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms related
to an upper-level low are affecting the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles, particularly from 15N to 17N between 55W and 60W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak low will move northeastward
ahead of a strong cold front currently moving across the NW
waters. Please, see the Special Features section for more details
related to the cold front.

$$
GR
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