[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302240
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a gale
warning for the Agadir area of Morocco. For more information,
please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at
website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from
02N to 13N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 35W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W south of
15N into Suriname. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 12N to 13N between 53W to 57W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W between
Jamaica and eastern Panama. It is moving westward around 10-15
kt. No convection is noted with this wave in the Caribbean at
this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania 18N16W to
08N30W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 10N52W. In
addition to the convection already described in the Tropical Wave
section, scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N
between 23W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1016 mb high pressure is located off the coast of Louisiana near
28N92W. A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Light to
gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in all areas.

For the forecast, the surface ridging will prevail through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of
90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough
develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the
Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh to strong Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted over the
south-central Caribbean, following the tropical wave south of
Jamaica. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft
seas. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Mon night.
Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central waters will
expand in coverage through Mon night. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
East Atlantic gale warning.

A surface trough extends from 31N77W to the northern Bahamas.
This is associated with a sharp upper trough reaching from New
England to eastern Cuba. Divergent flow aloft east of the upper
trough is supporting a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms
within 120 nm east of the surface trough north of 28N, and from
22N to 27N between 62W and 72W.

1015 mb low pressure, the remnant of Cindy, is stationary near 30N64W.
Fresh to locally strong SW winds are noted from 60 to 90 nm southeast
of the center, along with seas 6 to 7 ft seas. 1026 mb high
pressure is evident near 29N36W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4
to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere n of 20N west of 35W. Moderate
to fresh NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident elsewhere,
except for strong NW winds off northwest Africa and light breezes
south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

$$
Christensen
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