[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 11N between 19W and 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 14N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 07N to 11N between 45W and 48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from Puerto Rico
southward to north-central Venezuela, and moving west around 15
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Isolated thunderstorms
are present over eastern Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 10N22W to near
09N30W. Scattered showers are present south of the trough from 04N
to 10N between Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 19W. An ITCZ
continues from 09N30W across 08N35W to 09N45W, then resumes
southwestward from 08N40W to just north of the Suriname- French
Guiana border near 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident up to 140 nm north, and 350 nm south of the first ITCZ
segment. Similar convection exist up to 140 nm along either side
of the second ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and
northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A diurnal surface trough is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1014
mb high at the north-central, and a 1016 mb high at the east-
central Gulf continue to dominate much of the region. Moderate to
fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
dominate the southwestern Gulf, including the central and eastern
Bay of Campeche. Moderate with locally fresh SE to S return flow
and 3 to 4 ft seas exist at the west-central and northwestern
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the highs will prevail through the weekend,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and
light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally
fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
each night into Sat as the diurnal trough develops each evening
and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A modest upper-level trough across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica
is producing isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, just
south of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in
the Caribbean Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge extending southwestward from a 1021 mb high at
the eastern Atlantic to near 20N60W is providing trade-wind flow
across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE
to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found at the south-central
basin, north of Colombia. Mainly gentle easterly winds and 1 to 3
ft seas are noted at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE
to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin,
including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh tonight into Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds will develop over the south-central waters Thu
night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaches southward from a 1012 mb low at northern
Florida to near the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are flaring up along the Florida east coast and
across the Atlantic waters adjacent to it and farther east, north
of 29N between 74W and 78W. Another surface trough south of
Bermuda near 29N64W is causing isolated thunderstorms north of 25N
between 65W and 70W. Convergent southeasterly winds feeding toward
this trough are coupling with divergent flow aloft to create
scattered moderate convection farther southeast from 19N to 30N
between 58W and 64W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

Mainly gentle southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident
north of 19N between 65W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther
east, moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
found north of 19N between 50W and 65W. At the eastern Atlantic, a
1021 mb high is dominating the area north of 20N between 25W and
50W with light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. Near the Canary
Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas
of 4 to 7 ft seas are present north of 19N between the Africa
coast and 25W. Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate with locally
fresh NE to ESE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist from 07N to 19N
between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft in moderate
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough south of Bermuda will move
northward, with the possibility of a low pressure center
developing along it. Winds will strengthen in the vicinity of the
trough tonight before moving north of the area Fri. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W with light to
gentle winds elsewhere.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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