[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. The wave is under the influence of Saharan dry air and
dust and lacks significant convection.

An active and fast-moving tropical wave extends its axis along
69W, from 18N southward, moving W at about 20 to 25 kt. A broad
area of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with this
wave is affecting the Lesser Antilles, mainly south of Guadeloupe
and the easter Caribbean. Moisture associated with this system
will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles today, spreading over
the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday increasing
the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer
data indicate fresh to locally strong winds behind the wave axis
north of 15N. Recent altimeter data show wave heights up to 10
ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
12N16W to 10N30W to 05N43W. The ITCZ continues from 05N43W to
09N56W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is off the
coast of Africa from 05N to 13N between 11W and 18W. This
convective activity could be associated with the next tropical
wave. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 09N
between 20W and 27W, and from 03N to 08N between 40W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface high pressure, with a 1015 mb center near 25N90W
dominates the weather conditions across the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of a surface trough
over the west Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions
prevail.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half of the
basin. Otherwise, fresh winds will pulse north and west of the
Yucatan peninsula each night through Sat as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands and is
forecast to affect US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Wednesday. Please see Tropical Waves section for more details.

A weak pressure gradient is across the region as the remnants of
Cindy has weakened the Bermuda-Azores High. This is resulting in
gentle to moderate trade winds basin-wide with seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds Wed night through Sun
night as a wave move across this area. Winds will likely reach
strong speeds Fri into Sat night as the wave move across the
central basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Cindy, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 400 miles
to the south of Bermuda. While strong upper-level winds are expected
to prevent redevelopment of this system over the day or so,
environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for some
gradual development during the latter part of this week. The system
is forecast to move generally northward over the western Atlantic,
passing near Bermuda on Thursday. Recent scatterometer data depicted
fresh to strong winds within about 150 nm northeast quadrant of
center. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov

A surface trough remains east of the coast of Florida and extends
from 31N79W to near southeast Florida. This trough is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northwest
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are east of the trough
north of 29N while mainly gentle to moderate winds are noticed
south of 29N. Another surface trough is analyzed over the eastern
Atlantic and extends from 31N28W 28N22W. No significant convection
is seen with this system, and only light winds are noted on either
side of the trough, with seas of 6 to 8 ft due to a northeast
swell. The remainder subtropical waters are under the influence of
the Bermuda-Azores High. Outside of the tropical wave entering
the Caribbean Sea, and the remnants of Cindy, gentle to moderate
winds are observed per scatterometer data over the central
Atlantic, with light to gentle winds elsewhere N of 20N, except
near the coast of Mauritania where moderate to fresh northerly
winds are noted. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh SE winds to the E of the remnants
of Cindy will lift N of the area Thu. Fresh SW winds across the
NE Florida offshore waters will diminish to gentle to moderate
speeds tonight as an approaching front weakens into a surface
trough. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere.

$$
KRV/GR
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