[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from
15N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on
either side of the tropical wave, and within 120 nm to
the south of the nearby monsoon trough between 23W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from
16N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 19N
southward, within 420 nm to the east of the tropical wave,
and within 480 nm to the west of the tropical wave.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from the ITCZ
to 22N between 45W and 60W. Strong easterly winds are from
14N to 18N between 48W and 56W. Fresh easterly winds are
from 12N to 27N between 47W and 58W. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are from the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 15N between
32W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W, from 18N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are
in the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W 08N36W and 09N41W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N41W, to 13N46W, to 13N52W
12N55W and 11N60W. Precipitation: disorganized widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N
southward from the 44W/45W tropical wave eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented middle level to upper level trough
passes through central Florida. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the eastern half of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N91W,
just to the NW of the central sections of the Gulf
of Mexico. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in
much of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are
reaching 3 feet in the coastal waters of NE Mexico.
The sea heights are reaching 4 feet off the coast
of NW Yucatan Peninsula, and off the middle Texas
Gulf coast. Mostly moderate or slower anticyclonic
winds cover the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fresh to
some strong winds are in the coastal waters of the
NW and W Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower
anticyclonic winds are in the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate, are from 22N southward from
87W westward. A broad NW-to-SE oriented surface trough
is in the interior sections of Mexico, passing through
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico toward
the Yucatan Peninsula.

High pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico extends W
across the basin and will remain in place into late week.
Fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the central sections of
the Caribbean Sea northward, beyond Hispaniola.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
16N northward from the Windward Passage eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 75W in Colombia,
beyond Panama and southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 13N
between 72W in NW Venezuela and 76W.

The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in much of the area
that is from 80W eastward. Some exceptions are for ranges
from 5 feet to 6 feet to the south of Haiti and Jamaica,
and 240 nm to the south of Cuba. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 3 feet from 15N southward from 80W westward,
and from 3 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Mostly moderate or
slower winds cover the area. Fresh winds are in the coastal
waters of NE Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras.

A robust tropical wave along 84W will continue moving
into Central America and eventually into the Eastern Pacific
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras
will gradually diminish into Tue. Another tropical wave will
pass over the Lesser Antilles and westward into the Caribbean
Sea on Tue. Winds and seas in adjacent Atlantic waters will
increase some after the wave passes. Looking ahead, strong
winds and rough seas are likely over the eastern and central
Caribbean Thu night into Sat after the tropical wave moves
through the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves from 16N67W to 23N65W to 30N63W.
This surface trough is the remnant of Cindy. Precipitation:
scattered strong is from 23N to 26N between 56W and 62W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N
northward between 50W and 72W. Mostly moderate to some fresh
easterly winds are from 24N northward between 60W and 67W.
Fresh to strong southerly wind flow is from 28N northward
from 77W westward, in the Florida coastal waters. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 22N northward
between 60W and 70W.

A surface trough is curving along 30N11W 29N24W 23N30W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate is from 22N northward from 32W eastward.
Moderate and fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon
trough/ITCZ southward from 40W eastward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 22N northward between
20W and 50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area
of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Moderate to some fresh
NE winds are from 25N northward from 50W eastward. Moderate
NE winds are from 15N northward between 30W and 50W.
Moderate or slower winds cover the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Former low pressure has weakened into a surface trough along
63W, which is producing fresh to strong winds and scattered
moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 55W and 63W.
These winds will gradually weaken as this trough moves N and
eventually out of the area by late week. Seas associated with
the trough will also gradually decay, but likely remain above
8 ft through Tue morning. Elsewhere, gentle SW winds off
northeast Florida will increase through Tue night ahead
of a trough over the southeast U.S.

$$
mt
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