[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An active and fast moving tropical wave is along 52W, from 16N
southward, moving W at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is depicted on both sides of the wave from 09N
to 14N between 47W and 58W. Moisture associated with this system
is expected to reach the Windward Islands this evening or tonight,
increasing the likelihood of rain. Resent scatterometer data
indicate fresh to locally strong winds behind the wave axis north
of 13N with seas up to 8 ft.

A tropical wave, previously associated with the remnant low of
Bret is along 83W, from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and regional waters.
The axis of the wave also crosses western Panama. Recent satellite
derived wind data provide observations of moderate to fresh SE
winds on the east side of the wave, with gentle to moderate NE
winds on the west side of this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W and continues westward to 08N25W to 09N23W to
08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N35W to 10N50W to 09N60W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
06N to 12N east of 21W to the coast of west Africa. Similar
convective activity is also noted from 06N to 10N between 21W and
37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure, with a 1014 mb center near 25N92W dominates
the weather conditions across the Gulf waters supporting gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. A surface
trough is moving westward across the Bay of Campeche and extends
from 23N94W to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A few showers are near
the trough axis. An area of thunderstorms is over the NE Gulf
extending between the Florida Panhandle and southeast Louisiana.
A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convection.
Strong gusts, locally rough seas, and frequent lightning may be
associated with this area of thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain in
place into late week. Fresh winds will pulse north and west of
the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops
each evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is affecting Central America and another tropical
wave is approaching the Windward Islands. Please see Tropical
Waves section for more details.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southwest Caribbean
affecting mainly the waters south of 13N between 76W and 80W. Outside
of the tropical wave over Central America, recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate to locally fresh trades over the central
Caribbean with seas of 5 to 7 ft, and gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of
Cuba.

For the forecast, the tropical wave associated with the remnants
of Bret will move W into Central America today, taking showers and
thunderstorms with it. Another tropical wave will pass over the
Lesser Antilles and westward into the Caribbean sea on Tue. Winds
and seas in adjacent Atlantic waters will increase some after the
wave passes. Looking ahead, strong winds and rough seas are likely
over the eastern and central Caribbean Thu night into Fri night
after the tropical wave moves through the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N77W to south Florida. An area of
showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the trough affecting mainly
the northwest Bahamas and parts of the Straits of Florida including
the Florida Keys. This convective activity is ahead of an mid to
upper level trough over the far western Atlantic. Farther east,
the remnants of former Tropical Storm Cindy are analyzed as a
surface trough that extend from 25N62W to 20N63W. In addition,
satellite imagery show a swirl of low clouds along the trough axis
center near 24N62W. The pressure gradient between the trough and
the Atlantic high pressure supports and area of fresh to strong SE
winds that covers the waters from 20N to 25N between 55W and 61W.
A surface trough, reflection of an upper-level low runs from
29N36W to 25N34W. Some shower activity is noted in the vicinity of
the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, with a main center
of 1029 mb located near 36N41W. Outside of the area associated
with the remnants of Cindy, this weather pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlantic west of
35W, with 6 to 8 ft seas, and moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, as previously mentioned, the remnants
of Cindy, centered near 24N62W, are producing strong winds and
rough seas along with scattered moderate convection, mainly E of
the center. These winds will gradually weaken as the remnants move
N, moving out of the area by late week. Seas associated with the
remnants will also gradually decay, but likely remain above 8 ft
through Tue. Elsewhere, gentle SW winds off northeast Florida will
increase through Tue night ahead of a trough over the southeast
U.S.

$$
KRV/GR
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