[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of Bret are centered near 13.1N 73.8W at 24/2100 UTC,
or 140 nm WNW of the northern tip of the Guajira Peninsula of
Colombia, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Seas or 12 ft or greater are within 90 nm in the NE quadrant
and 60 nm in the NW quadrant, with seas up to 15 ft. Scattered
showers are noted S of 17N between 66W-73W. The remnants of Bret
are forecast to dissipate over the central Caribbean tonight.
Despite this, swells generated by the remnants of Bret will
affect coastal areas adjacent to the central Caribbean Sea through
tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 17.8N 54.7W at 24/2100 UTC,
or 400 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving NW at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas or 12 ft or greater
are within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm SE quadrant, and 60 nm
NW quadrant, with seas up to 18 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted from 16N-26N between 47W-57W. Weakening is
forecast over the next several days, and Cindy could degenerate
into a trough of low pressure by the middle portion of this week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 32W and S of 13N, moving W at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-11N between
31W-35W.

A tropical wave is along 84W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W then continues SW to near 09N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection
can be found from 01N to 11N between 36W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed
over the SW Gulf and extends 23N96W to near Veracruz, Mexico. A
cluster of moderate convection is on southern portion of the
trough mainly S of 19N. A convection-less cold front extends along
the NE Gulf coast along 30N and E of 88W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over the SE Gulf affecting the southern
portion of the Florida Peninsula as well as the Straits of
Florida. Another area of scattered moderate convection prevails
across northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds prevail across the basin, with seas of 2 to 4.

For the forecast, the high pressure will move little through mid
week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each
night through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves
offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing
some hazy conditions over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
T.S. Bret and T.S. Cindy, ant the tropical wave.

The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean and the Greater
Antilles. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the remnants
of Bret supports an area of fresh to strong winds between
Dominican Republic and western Venezuela. This area of winds will
move westward in tandem with Bret through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate winds are observed. Outside of Bret, seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft, with an area of 6 to 7 ft over the SW
Caribbean and seas of 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the remnants of Bret will dissipate Sun
morning. Farther east, Tropical Storm Cindy will move well to the
northeast of the Leeward Islands near 19.7N 56.7W by Sun morning,
and will continue moving further north of the area through mid
week while weakening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical
Storm Cindy.

A 1016 mb low pressure is located near 28N57W with a surface
trough extending SW to near 24N59W. Another trough extends
eastward from the low center to near 29N50W. A well defined swirl
of low clouds is noted on visible satellite imagery related to
this low. An area of fresh to strong winds is noted per
scatterometer data within about 180 nm N of the low center due to
the pressure gradient between the low and high pressure of 1027 mb
situated near 36N47W. To the east, a surface trough, remnants of
a frontal boundary, runs from 31N33W to 28N40W.  The
aforementioned high pressure dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4
to 6 ft seas outside of the area of TS Cindy. An area of fresh to
strong N to NE winds is seen from 18N to 22N between the coast of
Mauritania and 21W due to the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over W Africa. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are active E of Florida to about 75W ahead of a
mid to upper level trough approaching the area from the west.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy Cindy move to
19.7N 56.7W Sun morning, 21.8N 58.8W Sun afternoon, 23.9N 60.6W
Mon morning, 25.5N 61.4W Mon afternoon, 27.0N 62.1W Tue morning,
and dissipate Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure extending
from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward
through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy.

$$
ERA
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